While most crypto markets are retesting crucial levels, Ethereum (ETH) is attempting to reclaim a major horizontal area. Some market observers have warned that the cryptocurrency could fall to new lows if the price does not rebound soon.
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Ethereum: weekly close on sight
On Thursday, Ethereum fell 1.4% to retest a key area for the second day in a row. After hitting a 10-month low of $1,747, the king of Altcoins rebounded more than 15% to trade between $2,000 and $2,150 over the past few days.
However, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization failed to hold the crucial $2,000 horizontal barrier on Wednesday and tested the $1,900 mark for the first time in a week.
After attempting to reclaim the key psychological level in the early hours of Thursday, Ethereum was rejected towards recent lows, briefly falling below. Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted the importance of ETH’s current zone, as it has already triggered major moves.
According to him, if the altcoin fails to reclaim the $2,000 zone in the coming days, a full return to recent lows should be expected soon. Likewise, market watcher Crypto Busy noted that the cryptocurrency is currently trading above major long-term support.
According to the post, the recent correction sent Ethereum towards a three-year ascending support line, which will “decide the next big move.” The analyst warned that “if the trendline breaks with strong weekly closes below $1,900, the structure weakens.”
ETH must therefore maintain its current levels in the coming days to avoid a weekly close below this level. Otherwise, its price could fall “into the next pockets of liquidity around $1,600 and possibly $1,300, where the next historical support zones exist.”
Will the “real” ETH bull market be two years away?
Trader AlejandroXBT shared a potential macro outlook for Ethereum that suggests the cryptocurrency could yet experience another major shake-up:
My thesis is that the major bullish move that began around 2019-2020 turned into a large and prolonged macro correction, and that Ethereum has since consolidated within this broader corrective structure.
He described four phases for macro-structure: the pump, the correction, the shakeout and the moon. The initial phase, which occurred between 2019 and 2021, marked “the real impulsive bullish move,” with strong trend expansion and growing momentum.
According to the market watcher, the strong rally following the 2022 bear market appears to be a “counter-trend move within a broader corrective range” rather than a new bull market and the start of a new long-term cycle.
As he explained, ETH’s limited behavior signals a distribution and consolidation rather than a continuation. “From this perspective, the apparent bull market that developed during the correction can be interpreted as a dead cat bounce, a technically strong bounce occurring within a broader corrective structure,” he asserted.
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Therefore, the current macroeconomic structure suggests that a final phase of shake-up may “still be necessary to fully reset sentiment and liquidity before Ethereum can move into a new impulsive bull cycle.”
Based on this, the trader anticipates a final liquidity-driven downward move in the coming months, followed by a “moon” phase, potentially next year, when “the structure suggests conditions for a true long-term bullish continuation, with price discovery and expansion well beyond previous highs.”
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com
