Ethereum’s latest bounce has brought the $10,000 bull market back into focus, but crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) says ETH has yet to confirm a longer-term trend reversal. In a May 7 market update, the analyst argued that Ethereum remains stuck below major resistance until it can reclaim the $2,800 area and prove its move with a successful retest.
The core of Kevin’s argument is simple: ETH has rallied from its local low near $1,700, but the move still looks like a counter-trend bounce rather than the start of a sustained bull market phase. He said market sentiment shifted from bearish to more neutral as prices climbed up to resistance, a trend he frequently sees during relief rallies.
“Is the bull market back? Are we back in a longer uptrend? Is ETH going to hit 10,000 right now? Is the bear market bottom reached?” he asked, framing the debate that now dominates crypto social media. His response was cautious. While some traders are already calling for a new uptrend, Kevin said the chart has yet to provide the confirmation bulls need.
Analyst Says Ethereum Still Needs Breakout to $2,800
For Kevin, the level to watch is $2,800. Until Ethereum moves back above this zone, moves toward $2,900 or $3,000, and then retests the reclaimed moving averages as support, he said the market structure remains unresolved.
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“Until ETH gets back above $2,800, until it gets back to $2,900 or $3,000, maybe gets rejected there, comes back down and retests these key moving averages, the golden pocket holds it and starts to move higher. Until that happens, it’s still a counter-trend rally higher in a downtrend longer,” he said.
He highlighted Ethereum’s interaction with the 100-week EMA, 21-week EMA, and 20-week SMA, saying that ETH had entered this resistance cluster and was already showing signs of rejection. Several daily candles, he noted, featured significant bullish wicks, which he interpreted as rally weakness rather than clean accumulation.
The analyst also questioned whether Ethereum’s current structure resembles a major bottom. According to him, previous bullish reversals showed more constructive accumulation, including rounded structures, stronger retests and sharper transitions above key averages. The current trend, on the other hand, has been “dull,” with low volume, moderate money flow, weak capital inflows, limited money flow, and insufficient upward expansion.
Bitcoin still leads the signal
Kevin emphasized that Ethereum should not be analyzed in isolation. Even for ETH, he said Bitcoin remains the first chart to watch to gauge whether the crypto has truly returned to a longer-term uptrend.
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“When it comes to analyzing altcoin, the first thing you should do is look at the Bitcoin chart. The second thing you should do, look at the USDT dominance chart. The third thing you should do, look at the altcoin versus Bitcoin pairing chart, and then from there you can analyze the USD pair by itself,” he said.
This framework is important because, in his view, Ethereum’s breakout depends not only on ETH’s resistance recovering, but also on Bitcoin confirming a broader market reversal. He noted that Bitcoin was testing its 200-day SMA, making the upcoming sessions important for the broader crypto trend.
Kevin said he remains prepared to pivot if the charts change. A valid bullish setup, in his framework, would include a breakout above the major moving averages, a pullback that holds them as support, and a further advance from there. This would mark the kind of trend change that could justify more aggressive bullish positioning.
At press time, ETH was trading at $2,283.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
