Ethereum is attempting to hold above $2,300 as the market experiences another period of volatility and uncertainty. Price action remains tentative, stuck between buyers looking for a reason to engage and sellers who have defined this cycle’s derivatives landscape more aggressively than almost any previous period. But according to analyst Darkfost, something has just changed in this landscape – and this change is significant enough to deserve our attention.
Throughout this cycle, Ethereum derivatives markets have been unusually hostile to the bulls. Net taker volume – the measure of how aggressively buyers versus sellers hit the market – remained almost consistently negative.
The clearest example came in December 2024, when ETH was heading towards a new all-time high above $4,000. Rather than buyers continuing the breakout, net buyer volume collapsed to -$511 million. It got worse from there. When Ethereum posted its cycle high just below $5,000, sell-side dominance reached -$568 million. The sellers were not only at the top, they were crushing it.
This pattern has defined the entire rally and created the impression that every move higher is contested, costly and ultimately unsustainable.
Today, Darkfost notes, the dynamic seems very different. For the first time in this cycle, the situation in derivatives markets appears to be changing – and it is worth understanding what is replacing this persistent selling pressure.
The sellers who defined this cycle have just lost the upper hand
Since March, the dynamic that defined the entire Ethereum derivatives market has quietly reversed. Buy-side volumes have taken control, with net taker volume reaching +$102 million today. After months of dominant sellers at all key price levels – including the all-time high – it is now buyers hitting the market aggressively.
The historical context provided by Darkfost is what gives this change its real weight. The last time the Ethereum derivatives market showed buying pressure of this magnitude was in 2022 – when ETH was trading around $1,000, close to the depths of the previous bear market. That was the last time buyers stepped in with that kind of conviction. What followed this period is not lost on anyone who has observed Ethereum over multiple cycles.
The implications, if the trend continues, are significant. This cycle was defined by a specific and unusual pattern: sellers dominated not only during periods of weakness, but also during every attempt at strength. Each rally was met with an aggressive bid. It is this pressure that has made each Ethereum rally fragile and short-lived.
If buyers are now systematically absorbing this supply rather than withdrawing, the structural context of Ethereum is changing. It’s early: a single piece of data does not confirm a new diet. But going from -$568 million at the peak to +$102 million today is no small feat. It’s the kind of reversal that, if sustained, tends to precede something more significant than a temporary rebound.
Ethereum tests resistance as recovery structure builds
Ethereum is attempting to stabilize above the $2,300 level after recovering from February’s sharp capitulation that briefly pushed the price below $1,800. The rebound has been constructive in the short term, with prices forming a streak of higher lows since early March. However, the larger structure remains unresolved.
The main technical feature of the current chart is the interaction with the 200-day moving average, which is in a downward trend and is now just above the price. This level acted as dynamic resistance, rejecting several recovery attempts. The recent move into the $2,350-$2,400 area was again met with selling pressure, reinforcing that sellers are still defending higher levels.
Volume dynamics adds nuance to the image. The February capitulation event was accompanied by a sharp increase in volume, signaling a forced sell-off and potential exhaustion. Since then, volume has normalized during the recovery, suggesting a more controlled organic supply rather than an aggressive pursuit of momentum.
Short-term momentum is improving, but Ethereum has yet to confirm any structural changes. A clear breakout and holding above the 200-day moving average would be necessary to move from recovery to trend reversal. Meanwhile, the current move appears to be a developing range with upper resistance and cautious buyers stepping in on the downside.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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