Ethereum (ETH) fell less than 1% on the day, at press time, after a strong 10% gain over the past week.
Despite this recent rebound, the broader crypto market remains under pressure, with total capitalization hovering just above $3 trillion.
ETH price performance reflects the capital outflow observed since the start of the fourth quarter. This quarter has been historically bullish for crypto since 2020, except in 2022 and 2025, according to CoinGlass.
Ethereum ETFs and whale activity contributed to this price decline. However, the market saw a slight recovery in the last week of November. Will capital outflows lead to a further decline, and to what extent?
Monthly Ethereum ETF Outflows Increase
Data from SosoValue showed that the last five consecutive days saw positive inflows of over $368 million. This reflects an influx of capital at a time when the entire market was finding its footing.
Looking at the bigger picture, November saw significant capital outflows. Around $1.42 billion was withdrawn from Ethereum ETFs, three times the $403 million recorded in March.
Source: SosoValue
The last quarter of the year was bearish, but ETH’s November was the worst. Massive inflows in July and August caused the price of ETH to rise, while the subsequent decrease in this activity led to a decline.
More capital outflows from OG whales
The capital outflow did not stop at the Ethereum ETF activity but extended to OG whales.
One of the earliest adopters of ETH cashed out his assets after about eight years of holding, having purchased at $517, according to Crypto Patel on X.
The whale gradually shed its spot position, the last being 18,000 ETH valued at $54.78 million. The deposit on Bitstamp was an indication of selling, confirming further capital outflow from the Ethereum ecosystem.
Source: Crypto Patel/X
In total, the whale sold 87,824 ETH worth $270 million, but still holds over $200 million in Ethereum.
These remaining holdings reflect confidence in the asset’s recovery potential, particularly from a long-term perspective.
Is the price of Ethereum likely to fall?
On hourly charts, Ethereum was holding above multi-day trendline support. This bullish pattern aligned with a 10% weekly gain, pushing the price from the $2,600 zone to $3,040 at the time of writing.
Capital outflow was at risk of falling below the ascending trend line. If this comes true, the price of ETH could be corrected by 5-6% from the current price.
This way, the price could return below $3,000.
Source: TradingView
Alternatively, if ETH defends this support level, the current rebound could continue to push the price higher.
Final Thoughts
- The last week of November saw massive ETH ETF inflows, but the monthly total is down to $1.42 billion.
- Selling of spot holdings by whales could trigger a price breakdown of 5% or more.
