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Ethereum price action has significantly underperformed traders’ expectations over the past few months. Ethereum is currently trapped in a downtrendwith its price down 23% over a 30-day period. This decline contrasts sharply with the hopes of many ETH investors who were anticipating a bullish surge following the launch of Spot Ethereum ETFs.
However, technical analysis suggests that Ethereum’s recent performance is not unusual for cryptocurrency, as it appears to mirror a similar pattern seen in 2016.
Ethereum Maintains Similarities to 2016 Price Movements
Despite the price concerns, a closer look at Ethereum’s historical price movements suggests that the current situation may not be as unusual as it seems. According to an ongoing analysis by crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, Ethereum’s price action in 2024 closely mirrors its performance in 2016 when viewed on the monthly candlestick chart. This repeating pattern became even more evident after Ethereum closed on a bearish candle in August 2024, mirroring the same outcome in August 2016.
Related Readings
In isolation, this probably wouldn’t have meant anything. However, as Cowen pointed out, this pattern has remained consistent throughout 2024, since January. Interestingly, Ethereum has closed monthly candlesticks in the same manner as it did in 2016 for eight consecutive months. As such, this could give an idea of how Ethereum may continue to trend for the remainder of the year.
#ETH / #USD Monthly candles continue to follow perfectly the year 2016.
If this continues to happen, it would suggest #ETH is green in September, then red in October-December.
Then in 2025 #ETH turns green for a while pic.twitter.com/G8WtDwQlWY
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) August 21, 2024
In 2016, Ethereum finally saw a massive 19,000% surge, which saw it reach $1,590 for the first time. If this continues like 2016, investors can expect a green monthly close for Ethereum in September, followed by three consecutive bearish months from October to December. If this repeat of price action continues past December 2024, Ethereum will eventually see a notable price surge above its current all-time high. This would push ardent Ethereum bulls toward much-needed profitability.
On the way to $5,000?
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,445, down 10.85% over the past seven days and 23% over the past 30 days. If the current trend continues to mirror the 2016 pattern, Ethereum’s bearish momentum could persist throughout the rest of the year. However, all hope is not lost for Ethereum bulls, as the cryptocurrency is currently hovering around a critical support level that could trigger an upward rebound.
Related Readings
Ethereum price is sitting at a crucial support level, specifically at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, just above $2,400. A significant bounce from this level could signal the start of an uptrend, leading to a close above its monthly open by the end of September. A surge in ETH above $3,000 to $4,000 and then to $5,000 is still on the cards.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart by Tradingview.com
