Ethereum returned below the $3,200 level following the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, a move that initially sparked volatility in the crypto market. While many expected a stronger reaction from Ethereum, the asset instead fell as traders reassessed the macro environment and the implications of a potential move toward stagflation. Despite this pullback, on-chain data suggests that the underlying structure of the market may be quietly improving.
According to new information from CryptoQuant, Ethereum net taker volume (30-day moving average) is showing a clear upward trend from its lows. This measure tracks the balance between aggressive buyers and sellers in the derivatives market. Although ETH remains under selling pressure, data reveals that the intensity of aggressive selling has continued to weaken over the past few weeks. Each subsequent negative low forms higher than the previous one, signaling that sellers are losing dominance.
While overall sentiment remains cautious, subtle improvements in net taker volume suggest that ETH’s current weakness may be masking the first stage of a larger structural shift.
Net taker volume signals potential structural change
According to CryptoQuant’s CoinCare, Ethereum could once again be approaching a crucial turning point. The report highlights that a similar Net Taker Volume structure emerged earlier this year. After reaching a clear bottom in January 2025, the indicator began to trend upward, even while remaining in the negative zone, indicating that aggressive sellers were gradually losing their strength.
In April, Net Taker Volume moved decisively into positive territory. From this very moment, Ethereum entered one of its strongest rallies of the cycle, surging more than 3x and reaching a new all-time high.
Current conditions echo this same pattern. Since the peak of selling pressure in September, the market has continuously absorbed selling flows for almost three months. Each negative bottom in net taker volume formed at a higher level than the previous one, revealing improved market resilience despite the broader downtrend. If this trajectory continues, CoinCare estimates that a positive turnaround in net taker volume could occur in just about a month.
Historically, this transition from negative to positive marked the beginning of Ethereum’s most explosive breakout phases. A confirmed move into positive territory would represent a very likely trigger for the next expansion towards new all-time highs, signaling that momentum is quietly rebuilding beneath the surface.
ETH Weekly Structure Attempts Recovery
Ethereum’s weekly chart shows the market attempting to stabilize after several weeks of volatility, with the price currently trading near $3,195 following a strong rebound from the $2,800 area. This area was a key demand region in mid-2024 and once again provided support, averting a deeper crisis. The recent weekly candle reflects renewed buying interest, closing firmly above the 50-week moving average, a level that often defines the direction of the mid-term trend.
Despite this rebound, ETH still faces structural challenges. The 100-week moving average – now above it – has acted as resistance throughout the current downtrend, and price rejected it again during the latest push towards $3,447. Until Ethereum can reclaim this dynamic resistance with conviction, the broader trend remains neutral to slightly bearish.
Volume also shows a notable shift: activity on the sell side has declined over the past month, while buyers begin to intervene more aggressively at key support levels. This aligns with improving on-chain metrics, suggesting weakening selling pressure.
For the bulls, the next major target is a weekly close above $3,400, which would signal a potential trend reversal. However, if this level is not breached, there is a risk of a retest between $2,900 and $2,800, where market sentiment would be tested again.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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