Ethereum has fallen into a valuation range that some on-chain analysts associate with major long-term lows, after ETH fell below its realized price for the first time in two years. Via X, renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez argued on Thursday that the pattern now resembles previous cycle lows.
Ethereum Enters MVRV Buy Zone
In an article on X, the analyst wrote: “Ethereum has entered a generational ‘buy zone’. The MVRV ratio, which measures the gap between the market price and the average cost to the investor, has just fallen into the range of 0.8 to 1.0. Historically, this “fair value” reset has been the precursor to massive structural bullish rebounds.
This framing relies on familiar chain logic. When MVRV falls toward or below 1.0, the spot price converges or falls below the holders’ overall on-chain cost base. In practical terms, the market no longer values Ethereum at the high level seen during euphoric phases. Instead, it tests an area where previous cycles have exhausted sellers and attracted longer-term buyers.
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Martinez paired this argument with a chart showing previous rebounds in the same region. The historical moves cited in this “buy zone” were substantial: approximately 150%, 5,390%, 130%, 280%, and 250%. The implication was explicit. “On-chain data suggests that Ethereum is approaching a long-term bottom. For those with a 12-24 month horizon, the accumulation window is officially open!”
Glassnode issued a similar signal last week, but in more moderate terms. “ETH has fallen below its realized price for the first time in 2 years, indicating that the average investor is now experiencing an unrealized loss,” the company wrote on March 11. She added two key metrics next to the chart: realized price at $2,058.04 and MVRV: 0.93 (7% unrealized loss).
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These numbers reinforce the broader thesis. A realized price of $2,058.04 versus a market price of $1,917.86 means that Ethereum was trading below the average on-chain acquisition cost tracked by Glassnode’s model. An MVRV of 0.93 suggests that the typical holder, overall, is down about 7% on paper. This does not guarantee a bottom, but it indicates a phase in which speculative excesses have already been largely absorbed.
In overheated markets, MVRV expands as prices far exceed the realized cost basis of the network, often reflecting excessive profits and increasing distribution risk. In contrast, numbers below 1.0 tend to appear when conviction is low, sentiment is damaged, and marginal sellers have already absorbed much of the decline. This is why analysts often consider the area strategically important, even if price developments remain volatile in the short term.
At press time, ETH has once again bounced above the realized price and is trading at $2,139.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
