Ethereum (ETH) holds around the $2,900 level as improving macroeconomic sentiment, resuming whale accumulation, and increased ETF flows bolster expectations of a near-term rebound toward $3,400.
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With the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut now above 80%, traders are positioning themselves for a potential shift in risk appetite that could benefit major cryptocurrencies, particularly ETH.
ETH's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: ETHUSD on Tradingview
Fed Pivot Hopes and Institutional Demand Support Ethereum
Ethereum has traded between $2,700 and $3,300 in recent weeks, but new catalysts are helping the asset stabilize above $2,900.
The main driver is macroeconomic. Data from CME FedWatch shows that the probability of an interest rate cut in December increased from 30% to more than 80%. Lower interest rates generally encourage investments in risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Institutional flows reflect this change. U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs saw $96.67 million in inflows on November 24, with BlackRock alone contributing $92.6 million, its first entry in two weeks.
Treasury giant BitMine continues to accumulate aggressively, adding 69,822 ETH (over $200 million) last week and bringing its total holdings to 3.63 million ETH, or about 3% of the circulating supply.
At the same time, whale wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH accumulated 440,000 ETH in a week, signaling renewed confidence despite greater market caution.
Ethereum (ETH) poised to break through towards $3,400
Despite trading below the 20-day SMA at $3,132, Ethereum is showing early signs of bullish momentum. The MACD histogram has moved into positive territory and the RSI is near the neutral line of 50, with room to advance before reaching overbought levels.
Other indicators reinforce the bullish scenario:
- Bollinger Bands: ETH’s position near 0.32 suggests the price is closer to the lower band, a common rebound zone.
- Volume: Binance’s 24-hour trading volume of around $1.27 billion indicates enough liquidity to support a breakout.
- ATR: With a daily ATR at $201.62, volatility remains elevated, favoring sharp moves higher if momentum builds.
The first major test remains $3,132. A clean breakout and two consecutive daily closes above this level would likely trigger algorithmic buying and push ETH towards the $3,400 target within 5-7 days. Beyond that, resistance at $3,658 becomes the next upside target.
Market risks and short-term outlook
As bullish momentum builds, Ethereum is still trading within a wide descending channel and market structure remains fragile. Failure to recover $3,132 soon could send ETH back towards $2,750, with deeper support at $2,623 and the cycle low of $2,659.
Related Reading: The Bullish and Bearish Scenario for XRP That Could Play Out in November
Broader crypto weakness, negative one-time flows, or delays in network upgrades could delay a breakout.
However, with increasing institutional demand, whale accumulation, and rate cut optimism, Ethereum’s likelihood of retesting $3,400 is steadily improving. The average confidence level is at medium (65%), as ETH’s path towards $3,400 remains viable but requires confirmation through key resistance levels.
Cover image from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview
