November started on a negative note for cryptocurrency prices, with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly falling towards $105,000 on Monday. The decline has reignited bearish sentiment among investors, and experts warn the situation could worsen in the coming days.
November deadline approaches
Market expert CryptoBirb recently expressed his concerns on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), pointing out that the market had already entered a bearish cycle for ten days. According to CryptoBirb, diving into the on-chain data, the more alarming the picture appears.
CryptoBirb’s analysis begins with cycle peak data: 1,078 days have passed since the November 2022 low, or 101.2% of the crypto cycle completed. Additionally, 563 days have passed since the last halving, with 45 days remaining in the typical peak range of 518 to 580 days.
Alarmingly, the expected rally leading to this peak has not materialized and there are only 17 days left before the window closes for a peak on November 20. Missed breakouts during this period signaled the end of previous bull cycles.
Comparing the current situation to the 2017 cycle, we see that Bitcoin reached its peak on December 17, 2017, 1,068 days after its lowest. With BTC now 1,078 days into the current cycle, the chances of a late high decrease with each passing day that the cryptocurrency remains below $113,000.
From a performance perspective, Bitcoin is down 16% from its all-time high of $126,200 and has only gained 8.2% year to date. The market-leading crypto has faced repeated rejections in the range between $113,000 and $114,000 and is currently trading below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $109,882.
Historically, November typically sees an average gain of 17.5%, with positive performance in 10 of the last 15 years. However, the expert points out that when November starts in the red, it often indicates that the cycle is already changing.
Potential Bullish Factors Amid Lingering Crypto Concerns
Adding to this bearish sentiment, DeFi researcher DeFiIgnas highlighted several factors complicating the crypto market’s trajectory. These include what he calls “the speculative nature of the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble”, the inability of bullish news to reinvigorate cryptocurrency prices, the uncertainty surrounding entities that collapsed after the October 10 crash, and the cyclical nature of the market.
Additionally, selling activity from long-term holders and negative flows from crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) contribute to the prevailing concerns.
Despite these challenges, DeFiIgnas also identified some potential bullish factors that could favor recovery rather than further declines.
These include liquidity easing and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), a lack of euphoria in the crypto space, slow but steady institutional adoption, and the potential passage of a US crypto market structure bill.
Historically strong fourth-quarter performance, stablecoin supply at all-time highs, and a recent US-China trade deal could also offset the prevailing bearish sentiment.
Featured image of DALL-E, chart by TradingView.com
