Prediction markets had a watershed moment during the presidential election, when they proved more accurate than most opinion polls.
So, with the rise of various cryptocurrencies since Donald Trump’s election victory, perhaps prediction markets can accurately answer the question: “How high will Bitcoin go?”
On the crypto-based Polymarket, where the so-called French whale reported a huge post-election windfall, punters have various options for Bitcoin, which is currently trading at around $91,000.
For a contract on the price Bitcoin will reach in November, the chances are 72% that it will reach $95,000. The price with the highest odds is $105,000 at 23%, then $110,000 at 14%.
A separate contract that asks whether Bitcoin will exceed $90,000 on November 22 shows a 60% chance, while another contract asking whether Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in November has only a 42% chance.
On the Kalshi Prediction Market, a contract that asks how high Bitcoin will reach before 2026 shows a 52% chance for $125,000 or more and a 44% chance for $150,000 and more.
If prediction markets aren’t your thing and you prefer forecasts from a more conventional Wall Street analyst, there’s Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors.
Among forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, its 2023 stock call proved the most accurate.
As for Bitcoin, he said in March that it could reach $150,000 by the end of the year. Although this seems less likely now that there are only a month and a half left in the year, Lee told CNBC last week, the “six figures” is still possible before the end of the year with more gains in 2025 than in 2026.
“I think now, because after the halving, Bitcoin becomes a lot more relevant, and I think maybe as the regulatory burden goes down, there’s a lot of upside from here,” a- he explained.
Bitcoin has already soared 32% in November alone and has more than doubled this year. To get to $100,000, we would have to climb another 10%.
But there are signs that the post-election recovery is losing steam as the stock market posted a losing week. Yet key elements of the Trump trade are rising, such as Tesla shares, Treasury yields and the dollar.
Meanwhile, Quinn Thompson, the founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, said Fortune Last week there was optimism that Bitcoin would soon reach the $100,000 mark.
“I feel good about achieving this goal by the end of the year,” he said. “Very possible by the end of the month, but we’ll see.”
