Journalist
Published:
Cutthroat competition in perpetual decentralized exchanges, commonly known as Perp DEX, has stalled market leader Hyperliquide.
Rivals such as Binance-backed Aster saw significant traction in the second half of 2025. But most analysts viewed Lighter as the real threat to Hyperliquid, citing several characteristics including privacy.
However, ahead of the Lighter (LIT) token’s debut and airdrop to early adopters, Messari research analyst Sam downplayed its threat.
In fact, Sam predicted that HYPE could outperform LIT in the medium term, addition that,
“HYPE will return to “endgame DEX”. HYPE investors won’t have to worry about fee compression for the foreseeable future.
For Sam, Lighter’s perp volume was “falling off a cliff” as the initial herding period that attracted most Hyperliquid traders is almost over.
Source: DeFiLlama
Will hyperliquid revenues recover?
In the second half, Hyperliquid’s perpetual volume fell significantly amid increasing competition and declining trading activity in the fourth quarter of 2025. It fell from $396 billion to $165 billion, a roughly 60% decline in traction.
Source: DeFiLlama
The cooling also reduced the fees generated and revenue used to generate HYPE redemptions.
In fact, average weekly income fell from $20 million in the third quarter to just $7 million at the end of December, a whopping 65% shortfall.
With in progress monthly releases Along with the slow pace of token buybacks, bears have been having fun with HYPE. However, Sam believes a reversal could be likely if Lighter farmers return to Hyperliquid.
HYPE vs LIT Price Action
Meanwhile, Lighter officially announced the LIT token, noting that 25% of the total supply of 1 billion tokens will be immediately distributed to early adopters.
The rest of the tokenomics mirrored HYPE, including a one-year vesting period for teams and the use of revenue for buyouts.
“Revenue from our core DEX product will be split between growth and redemptions based on market conditions.”
The TGE token’s listing price was $3.3, but it fell to $2.7, representing a 21% decline over the last seven trading days. It saw a 16% drop in the last 24 hours.
On the other hand, HYPE is up over 2% in the past 24 hours and could turn bullish in the short term if it breaks the recent high of $26.4. The next roadblock and resistance to overheating would be $27.
Source: HYPE/USDT, TradingView
Final Thoughts
- The volume of lighter products fell after the end of airdrop farming, and the price of LIT also declined.
- HYPE saw a short-term rebound, but it was unclear whether the recovery would persist.
