There are soo many potential problems with prediction markets to name a few:
- Insiders
- Centralized market resolution that may not match reality
- Ambiguous Rules that end in people getting scammed
- Bettors giving using violence / death threats on entities to try and impact market results
- 3rd parties attempting to manipulate voters with fake outcomes
- The polymarket entity itself deciding questions outcomes via "Clarifications"
Prediction Markets might be fun as a novelty however "betting on anything" can create a ton of lets say… problems.
You can view a number of my previous posts on Polymarket and these previous problems here: Prior Posts
——
However what I want to focus on today is if: Insiders are positioning for an actual land incursion into Iran in the next 2.5 days.
In the last day the liklihood that the US will invade Iran by April 30th increased form 58% to 70%.
However notably the market for March 30th went from 12% to 30% to 12%.
Which looks a large portion of that drop was initiated by this user selling a huge position of no on March 31st positions
And moving to a huge yes by April 30th position. Inter
It's pretty well known at this point that a ton of Insiders having been betting on these Israel/Iran markets and noticeably this user went from losing a ton to being up a ton largely by being right on Israel based markets which could point to a party having access to insider information .
——
So is this another Israeli military insider indicating that the US is about to launch a land incursion in Iran? I'm not someone who can dox and track down wallets. I don't know who this is. However I can tell you that whoever it is doesn't think the risk of the invasion happening before March 31st worth the risk/reward.
—-
Please note this post isn't meant to recommend a March 31st land incursion position on Polymarket. Trump usually waits for the weekends to do movements that will rock global markets and the possible insider themselves didn't think the at the time 10 to 1 odds were worth the risk on yes by March 31st and instead opted for a 1.5 to 1 bet of April 30th.
