Journalist
Published:
The fourth quarter turned out to be bearish, especially for digital asset treasuries.
As a reminder, DATs with “single asset” portfolios have come under increased scrutiny of late. And with Bitcoin (BTC) dominating so many balance sheets, the focus isn’t just on MicroStrategy (MSTR).
Instead, given the growing dominance of BTC-focused DATs in the market, it is clear that this issue targets a broader network. The chart below shows this clearly: the top 100 DATs now collectively hold 1,073,832 BTC.
Source: BitcoinTreasuries.net
Of course, of these, only MSTR holds more than 50% of its treasury in BTC.
The MSCI risk excluding MSTR is therefore significant. In fact, Bloomberg analysts have already estimated a potential passive outflow of $2.8 billion if this happens, highlighting the impact on index investors.
But does this protect the rest of the BTC DATs?
Not really. Many BTC DATs are expanding their holdings, demonstrating strong conviction in long-term Bitcoin accumulation. In this environment, staying on top of MSTR-MSCI updates is more crucial than ever.
On-Chain Signals Highlight Role of MSTR in Bitcoin DATs
There has been a key change in ranking among Bitcoin DATs.
For example, the American Bitcoin Corp, backed by President Trump’s family, added 416 BTC, bringing its total to 4,783 BTC. The result? The move propelled the company to the 22nd largest BTC DAT, surpassing GameStop.
In short, competition among Bitcoin DATs is intensifying. Therefore, MSTR’s MSCI response is being closely watched, highlighting that the impact extends beyond MSTR as more companies accumulate BTC.
Source: Strategy.com
Recently, MSTR formally responded to MSCI, requesting that the proposed exclusion be removed and outlining the main reasons supporting its argument. The market reacted bullishly, with the intraday price of MSTR stock jumping 3.16%.
On-chain metrics also show improvement. Its 30-day average trading volume increased by $4 and daily trading volume now exceeds that of e-commerce platform Amazon. The standout? MSTR’s mNAV sits at 1.18 at the time of publication.
This shows that MSTR’s market valuation is higher than its net asset value. With an mNAV of 1.18, the stock was trading at an 18% premium to its Bitcoin-backed NAV, at press time, signaling strong investor confidence.
Overall, growing competitive pressure, evolving DAT rankings, and stronger on-chain signals set the stage for a pivotal period, making the upcoming MSCI updates a potential catalyst for Bitcoin.
Final Thoughts
- MSCI’s review of MSTR emerges as an industry-wide risk event, amplifying focus on Bitcoin-heavy Treasuries.
- Strengthening on-chain metrics and bullish market response to MSTR’s defense highlight growing investor confidence, making MSCI’s upcoming moves a potential catalyst for Bitcoin.
