## Market Overview
The market for a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 is currently rated at 14.5% YES, down slightly from 14% 24 hours ago. This reflects a one point rise to 17% earlier in the day.
## Key points to remember
– Araghchi’s statement appears to suggest a diplomatic impasse in the US-Iran nuclear negotiations. – Market prices suggest a lower likelihood of a deal by the end of May. – Recent geopolitical developments are consistent with a less optimistic scenario for a short-term agreement.
## Article body
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that no nuclear negotiations are currently on the agenda with the United States, as reported by Press TV. The statement comes amid ongoing indirect negotiations facilitated by Oman, focused on Iran’s nuclear program and possible sanctions relief. Despite previous reports of progress, Araghchi’s announcement indicates a pause or deprioritization of diplomatic efforts. The negotiations, which resumed in February 2026, were marked by cautious optimism about a more favorable agreement than the previous Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). However, the current geopolitical climate, including the build-up of the US military in the region, adds layers of complexity to the negotiations.
## Market interpretation
The announcement of the absence of scheduled negotiations argues in favor of a NO outcome for the US-Iran nuclear deal deal. The impact is considered moderate, with a decrease in the perceived likelihood of reaching an agreement by May 31. Prices reflect the expectations of market participants in light of this diplomatic impasse.
## What to watch
Key players such as US President Donald Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could provide additional information or statements that could influence the market. Changing relations between the United States and Iran, potential sanctions or military activities could also impact market dynamics. Observers should monitor any announcements from the IAEA regarding Iran’s nuclear activities, as they could significantly influence market sentiment.
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