Iran Rezaei rejects Trump’s nuclear claims, calling them ‘April lie’ amid rising tensions

Ebrahim Rezaei, chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, called Trump’s nuclear and strategic claims “April lies.” The probability of an announcement of a breakdown of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran by April 21 is 23% YES, compared to 8% yesterday.

Traders reacted quickly after Rezaei’s statement. The April 21 ceasefire market rose 14% to 18% after the release, pricing in a higher risk of a violation in the coming days. Meanwhile, Iran’s uranium enrichment deal fell through on April 30 30.4% YES, down from 50% yesterday, a strong move reflecting skepticism about any short-term deal.

The Ceasefire market traded $3,485 in USDC, with an order book depth of $498 to move 5 points, moderate liquidity. The biggest move in the last 24 hours was a 3-point spike just on Rezaei news alone. The uranium market is trading thicker with daily USDC volume of $34,430, but showed more volatility, dropping quickly by 4 points yesterday.

Rezaei’s dismissal makes de-escalation more difficult to integrate. Both markets are now showing growing doubts about the effectiveness of the negotiations as Iranian rhetoric hardens. Buy YES shares at 23¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire violation is announced, a 5.56x back. This bet requires being sure that the escalation will continue over the next three days.

Watch for Trump’s response on social media and any further statements from Iranian leaders. Either could move these markets significantly before the April 21 deadline.

Get prediction market insights as a structured API feed. Waitlist for early access.