Iran has announced its intention to retaliate against US attacks, rejecting US influence in negotiations. The probability of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran by April 7 is now 1% YES, compared to 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
Iran’s aggressive statement, shared on social media, caused market ratings to fall several times. The April 7 market stagnates at 1% in a few days. Longer-term markets are also affected: April 15 is at 6% YES, down from 8% yesterday, while the April 30 market is down to 17.5% YES from 24%. The May 31 market saw the biggest drop, now at 36.5% YES, compared to 46% in 24 hours.
A trading volume of $431,402 indicates strong interest, but also shows the cost of market influence. To move the April 7 market by 5 points requires $12,352, meaning even small bets can change the odds. A 2-point decline in the May 31 market highlights traders’ doubts about near-term peace.
The Iranian threat increases tensions and reduces prospects for peace. Even though this statement does not have the support of a major source, it still affects the markets. A YES action for a ceasefire on April 7 at 1¢ offers a 99x return, but this requires belief in a quick and unlikely resolution.
Watch for official statements from figures like Trump, Rubio or CENTCOM. Changes in rhetoric or new talks could be crucial. Until then, expect continued volatility and pressure on the chances of a ceasefire.
Affected markets
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