For over a decade, Bitcoin investors have relied on the familiar four-year cycle to navigate bull runs, capitulations, and market shifts driven by halving events. By 2025, this long-standing roadmap is starting to look outdated – and analysts are looking for a new framework to understand where Bitcoin (BTC) will head next.
Some argue that institutional capital is reshaping the market. Others point to the weakening impact of the halving, the rise of AI as a competing investment frontier, or global liquidity trends that no longer fit old models. Whatever the cause, one thing is clear: Bitcoin doesn’t seem to be moving like it used to.
In this exclusive Cointelegraph interview, Jeff Park, Partner and Chief Investment Officer at ProCap BTC, questions the assumptions behind the four-year cycle, arguing that Bitcoin could now shift to a much shorter and more dynamic two-year cycle.
Park argues that the structure of the Bitcoin market has undergone a fundamental change, as institutional flows operate under different incentives than retail investors.
At the heart of Park’s argument is a provocative idea: Shorter cycles could significantly reshape the way investors think about Bitcoin’s timing, volatility and potential trajectory through 2026.
Park also explains why some players prefer short-term weakness, how liquidity patterns intersect with the new cycle, and what this shift could mean for the next major move.
Watch the full interview with Jeff Park on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel for his full analysis of the two-year cycle theory and its implications for the future of Bitcoin.
