ADA’s decline in open interest resembles Solana’s past pattern, where a fragmented market often precedes a slowdown in altcoin momentum.
Cardano saw a sharp decline of over 10% over the past week. It started near $0.30, but heavy selling pushed it to $0.23, forming a consolidation at $0.26. Amid strong bearish pressure, new data suggests that major traders have exited their ADA positions.
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said the Cardano derivatives market is going through a major change that could affect price dynamics.
Cardano follows the path of Solana
Open interest in ADA declined sharply from $1.6 billion to $334 million as major players aggressively closed their positions. However, Wedson explained that the biggest change is how OI is distributed across exchanges. As of 2023, Binance controlled over 80% of ADA’s open stake, while 17 other exchanges combined held less than 20%.
By 2026, this balance has changed dramatically as Binance now holds only 22% and Gate.io has become the new leader with 31% of the market. Wedson observed that this change is significant because a similar pattern occurred with Solana.
During SOL’s rally from $20 to $200 in 2023-2024, Binance’s dominance in open interest increased, supporting price appreciation.
Later, as Binance’s share declined, Solana’s momentum weakened. The same trend appears to be developing with Cardano, and with open interest now fragmented, the altcoin’s upside potential may be limited as the overall crypto market remains fragile.
“Binance tends to be the exchange that fuels strong altcoin rallies, but only when leverage is concentrated and competition is limited.”
Long-term trend remains intact
Despite the near-term market uncertainty gripping the ADA market, pseudonymous analyst “Crypto Patel” believes that the overall long-term structure remains bullish as long as the price does not fall below $0.13 at the weekly close.
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On the positive side, he says ADA needs to reclaim $0.44 to confirm a new uptrend. If this happens, the crypto asset could enter a new bull cycle and the long-term targets range from $1.20 to over $10, as in previous cycles.
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