Is it possible that we’re starting another bear cycle right on cue, once again? No “this time it’s different”. No “it’s already priced in”. Like clockwork. Here’s what things are looking like right now in terms of the cycles:

I'm still baffled that cycles are continuing to play out so well, and somehow it's not priced in, nor derailed by anything. Not just in the 4 year timing, but the same tapering ratios in price still seem to be in play, still following a curve.

If $126K was the peak, then once again, we got a bull cycle peak every 4 years. Right in Q4.

Also we're seeing the consistent tapering down each cycle.

Like a ripple in a pond, or an echo, with each new wave weakening.

2025 peak went 8x

2021 peak went 16x

2017 peak went 90x

2013 peak went 452x

Each new bear market starting in Q4, then having one last big rally and bull trap, before the plunge.

2017 vs 2021 vs 2025

We see how each bull cycle ATH finished.

Then how the crash started.

If $126K is in fact the peak of the cycle, then it looks like $98K was the first quick bounce back after nearly a straight plunge with the first relief and major rally.

If history is any guide, we might see a second rally, with another slightly longer period of higher lows, before we fully plunge in the bear winter.