- The Bitcoin price exceeded $ 98,000, but the drop in network activity raises concerns concerning overvaluation.
- The Bitcoin price rally at $ 98,000 clashed with a weakening of the network fundamentals.
The Bitcoin (BTC) price has decreased after its rise of more than $ 100,000, recently receiving $ 98,000. Although this price range excites investors, the underlying data on the channel has a contrasting story.
The activity of the network has reached a weakness of one year, which raises concerns about the justification of current price levels.
Ambcrypto assesses if the fundamentals support the Bitcoin rally by evaluating the key measures of the evaluation such as the law of Metcalfe and the market value ratio on the value achieved (MVRV). This evaluation will determine if a correction is imminent.
The evaluation and activity of the Bitcoin network: an increasing disconnection?
Bitcoin recently decreased to $ 98,000, down compared to the six -digit brand. However, a more in-depth examination of network activity suggests that cryptocurrency could be overvalued at current levels.
According to Metcalfe’s law, which values a network based on the number of active users, the fair Bitcoin value is between $ 48,000 and $ 95,000.
With the negotiation of the BTC above this range, concerns concerning sustainability arise.
Source: cryptocurrency
Metcalfe’s evaluation bands, which historically guided the Bitcoin price, indicate a potential gap. Since February 2024, Bitcoin has largely remained between red ($ 48,000) and blue ($ 95,000) evaluation bands.
The current price exceeding this fork suggests a speculative premium, possibly fueled by external factors such as ETF entries or macroeconomic optimism.
Activity of the declining network – A warning sign?
A deeper dive into the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network reveals a decrease in daily active addresses, a metric for user activity.
The drop in active addresses has been aligned with the downward trend of Metcalfe’s evaluation bands since March 2024, reflecting a reduction in chain engagement.
This trend suggests that the fundamentals of the underlying network do not fully support the current evaluation despite the Bitcoin price rally.
Source: Glassnode
The ratio of market value / value achieved (MVRV) further strengthens this concern. Historically, an MVRV greater than 2.4 preceded corrections, and the recent downward trend of this metric indicates potential overvaluation.
The difference between the market price and the value made suggests that investors can have unrealized gains, increasing the probability of profit.
Technical indicators – Where does the BTC go?
From a technical point of view, Bitcoin has maintained an upward structure but showed signs of exhaustion.
The price currently oscillates near the mobile average (MA) from 50 days to $ 98,710, while Momentum indicators suggest a slowdown.
If Bitcoin does not hold above this level, a decline to the region of $ 95,000 is possible, aligning with the upper evaluation strip of Metcalfe.
However, Bitcoin could target psychological resistance at $ 100,000 if the bullish momentum persists.
The 200 -day MA remains well below the current levels, indicating strong long -term support, but short -term overechard conditions cannot be ignored.
Correction or consolidation?
With the activity of the network at a low level of one year and a price exceeding the estimates of fair value, Bitcoin seems to be outdated.
While external factors such as institutional demand and macro-tendencies could support its rally, the chain fundamentals brush a more cautious image. Investors should closely monitor network growth and the main levels of support to assess the next Bitcoin movement.
– Read the Bitcoin price forecast (BTC) 2025-26
If Bitcoin cannot maintain a momentum greater than $ 98,000, a healthy correction towards the range of $ 95,000 to $ 90,000 could provide a better back -to -school point.
On the other hand, if BTC recovers the growth in network activity, the rally could resume, defying fundamental concerns.
