Is the worst over for Bitcoin? New Analysis Examines Whether $57.7K Marked Bottom

The focus now shifts from finding a bottom to determining whether a true trend reversal is beginning.

Bitcoin’s fall to around $57,700 in late June may have completed the worst phase of its 2026 bear market, according to a new market update released by BIT on July 17.

Having correctly anticipated much of BTC’s decline over the past few months, the crypto investment firm now says traders should evaluate whether this low marked the end of the correction or was just a pause before further decline.

The market has largely followed the previous roadmap

BIT’s latest report builds on a study published on June 12, in which it claimed that Bitcoin had entered the final phase of its bear market. At the time, the company presented an Elliott Wave ABC correction model from October 2025, which showed an initial sell-off into the $60,000-$69,000 range and a rebound towards $80,000-$90,000, followed by a final C-wave decline during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which is scheduled to end on July 19.

That prediction largely came true, with BTC first falling from around $97,000 to $62,900 in February of this year before rallying back to around $82,000 in May, an event that was described in the report as a “counter-trend rally within a bear market.” It then declined, eventually reaching $57,700 in late June after geopolitical tensions and new expectations for U.S. monetary policy weighed heavily on risk assets.

In its July 17 update, the ILO acknowledged having underestimated the impact of the conflict between the United States and Iran, which pushed inflation higher than expected, as well as the hawkish stance adopted by the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh. Nonetheless, the company said the broader pricing structure closely matches its initial outlook.

The previous report also highlighted several technical signals supporting the possibility of a market bottom, including historically depressed sentiment and oversold stochastic values. Additionally, at the time, BTC was trading well below its weekly moving average. The new update has now focused attention on the 21-week moving average, which it described as an important indicator for determining whether the market has returned to a longer-term uptrend.

Not everyone thinks the same thing

However, not everyone who reads the charts sees a bottom forming. Take, for example, CryptoQuant contributor IT Tech, who wrote in a note aptly titled “You really think the bottom is already there? » Bitcoin ETF flows, which have been one of the main drivers of the OG crypto rally over the past two years, have fallen significantly in 2026.

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In 2024, cumulative net inflows stood at over 500,000 BTC, and 2025 saw equally strong inflows of around 250,000 BTC. However, in 2026, the funds lost around 120,000 BTC, leading the analyst to wonder:

“If demand for ETFs has driven the rise, how can you be optimistic when that demand completely reverses?

According to them, the market is seeing a headwind and not a favorable wind.

Earlier this week, Bitcoin found itself above the $65,000 level after US CPI numbers came back well below what the market had expected, but those gains were quickly wiped out by sellers, and at the time of writing the asset was trading near $63,000, down almost 3% in 24 hours and around 2% over a week. Additionally, it is more than 50% below its all-time high.