Key takeaways
How does Kalshi strengthen the new Jupiter prediction market?
It serves as the liquidity backbone for Jupiter’s event contracts and bet settlement.
Will this give Kalshi a leg up on Polymarket?
Maybe in the short term. But both platforms are growing aggressively with a market share close to 50/50 at the time of writing.
Kalshi has expanded its prediction market offering to Solana (SOL) via Jupiter (JUP). Leading aggregator Solana DEX announced its beta version of “Jupiter Prediction Market” and added that the underlying liquidity will be powered by Kalshi.
Source: Jupiter
This could enrich Jupiter offerings and traction perps, spot swaps, on-chain stocks and now prediction markets. But beyond the surface, the debut looks like Kalshi’s proxy war for market share dominance against Polymarket.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket
For those unfamiliar, Kalshi is a CTFC regulated platform, but it is a Web2, which means it is centralized. But it punches above its weight and is one of the leading competitors in the field.
Polymarket, on the other hand, started as a decentralized application on Polygon (MATIC), an Ethereum L2. It has now partnered with X (formerly Twitter) to allow normies to bet on the events of their choice with a YES/NO option.
However, the company was banned in the United States in 2022 for operating without a license, but has since settled its dispute with the regulator and plans to resume operations.
In fact, the NYSE’s parent company, ICE, made a $2 billion strategic investment this would allow global financial firms to use Polymarket data for risk management.
However, during the ban, Kalshi gained market share and was on a tear. Throughout 2025, Kalshi market domination reached a peak of 65% at the end of September.
Source: Dune
The battle for market share resumes
But Polymarket seems to be making a comeback.
As of October, Polymarket had a 52% market share, with a weekly volume of over $690 million, while Kalshi controlled 46%. On both platforms, sports, crypto, and politics are the top volume-driving categories.
Kalshi, however, continued to dominate sports commerce, recording $866 million in volume, almost double Polymarket’s $414 million. It also dominated Open Interest, suggesting stronger long-term positioning.
Source: Dune
Thus, the current trend of Polymarket expanding into traditional marketplaces like X, while Kalshi partners with blockchain providers, has emerged as a power battle.
But with new players entering the market, it remains to be seen how this tug-of-war for market dominance will play out in the coming months.
