Ethereum is struggling to regain momentum after failing to regain the $3,200 level, keeping the market in a fragile balance. Despite several recovery attempts, price action suggests that bulls are now focused less on upside and more on defending current demand areas. This hesitation reflects broader uncertainty in the crypto market, where traders remain cautious amid tight liquidity and elevated macroeconomic risk.
However, beneath the surface, on-chain activity begins to tell a more nuanced story. According to Lookonchain, data from Arkham reveals that a major market player is aggressively re-entering. The so-called 66kETHBorrow Whale, which had previously accumulated 489,696 ETH worth around $1.5 billion, began buying Ethereum again as prices fell.
This behavior stands out because it occurred in times of weakness rather than strength, a pattern typically associated with strategic accumulation rather than short-term speculation.
Whale activity during dips often indicates confidence in higher prices over a longer time horizon, even when sentiment remains fragile. While Ethereum still faces technical resistance, the return of large buyers suggests that demand is weak but has not disappeared.
Whale Accumulation Raises Questions Amid Ethereum Weakness
Lookonchain data provides a deeper look at the 66kETH borrowing whale’s recent actions, highlighting a streak that has attracted a lot of market attention. Over the past eight hours, the whale borrowed approximately $85 million in USDT from Aave and transferred the funds to Binance.
Shortly after, he withdrew 38,576 ETH from the exchange, valued at approximately $119.3 million. This rapid movement of capital during a market downturn has raised questions among small investors, many of whom wonder whether this whale is acting on information or beliefs that are not yet reflected in the price.
Such behavior is often interpreted as deliberate accumulation, particularly when ETH is removed from exchanges rather than left on trading platforms. Currency outflows generally reduce immediate liquidity on the sell side, thereby reinforcing the perception of long-term positioning. However, it is essential to recognize the limits of on-chain visibility. These transactions only represent wallets that have been publicly identified and tracked.
There is no certainty that this whale’s display is completely transparent. It may hold additional hedges, short positions, or long exposures through other wallets, centralized exchanges, or derivatives markets that are not visible on-chain. Accordingly, although the activity suggests confidence, it should not be interpreted as definitive directional confirmation.
ETH price struggles below key moving averages
Ethereum is currently trading near the $3,150-$3,200 zone after a modest rebound, but the broader technical structure remains fragile. On the daily chart, ETH continues to trade below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both of which now act as dynamic resistance. The recent rebound stalled near the falling 50-day moving average, highlighting the lack of strong follow-through from buyers.
The 200-day moving average, positioned closer to the $3,500 zone, remains well above current price levels. This reinforces that Ethereum is still in a corrective phase as part of a broader macro uptrend. As long as the price remains below this long-term trend indicator, upward attempts are likely to be met with selling pressure from swing traders and systematic strategies.
Price action over the past few weeks shows a series of lower highs following the rejection near $4,000 in October, confirming a short-term bearish market structure. However, ETH has so far defended the $2,800-$2,900 support zone, suggesting buyers are still active at lower levels.
For Ethereum to change momentum decisively, bulls need to recover and hold above the $3,300-$3,400 range. Otherwise, downside risks remain, with a potential retest of previous demand areas if overall market sentiment deteriorates.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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