Military planners from more than 30 countries are meeting in London to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz, according to the British Ministry of Defense. The ceasefire market between now and April 30 is at
Market reaction
This meeting demonstrates a coordinated military approach and not a diplomatic breakthrough. The April 30 ceasefire contract saw the biggest decline as traders reassessed the likelihood of peace before the deadline. The biggest move was a 5 point spike yesterday at 6:59 p.m.
Why it matters
There are nine days left until the April 30 deadline, and current odds show traders are pessimistic about a quick resolution. The market trades $68,607 in USDC daily, and $4,074 is enough to move the odds by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity that is still vulnerable to large orders.
What to watch
The London meeting points to the preparation of military action to secure the maritime passage, and not to an immediate diplomatic resolution. With a ceasefire of April 30 estimated at
Watch for announcements from UK Defense Secretary John Healey, or any intermediary involvement from Oman or Qatar. Either could quickly change market sentiment.
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