Here’s what each version means for active traders and how the sequence fits together.
TL;DR
- June Jobs Report (NFP) outings Thursday July 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET, about two weeks after the Fed’s hawkish stance in June. May payrolls increased 172,000.
- FOMC Minutes Since Kevin Warsh Chair first meeting publish Wednesday July 8with details behind moving the point plot to a possible Rates rise in 2026.
- June CPIthe last major inflation read before FOMC decision of July 29land Tuesday July 14. The May title has been published +4.2% over one yeardriven by energy.
- JPMorgan Chase And Goldman Sachs report Second quarter result the same morning, with ISM PMI (July 1 and 6) and Beige Book (July 15) filling the two weeks.
NFP: employment situation in June (Thursday July 2, 2026)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the June employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. This is the first major data point in the coverage window and comes about two weeks after the Fed’s June meeting, where the dot chart trended toward potential tightening.
The May report added 172,000 jobs after upward revisions from March and April, with the unemployment rate remaining within a range consistent with a tight labor market. The Fed’s hawkish turn at the June meeting was based in part on confidence in strong employment.
A June print that extends this image reinforces the conditions behind the pivot. A significantly softer result complicates the arguments in favor of a July hike without necessarily resolving them; inflation dynamics and the minutes will do their own job next week.
Traders approaching this release should consider the surrounding calendar: U.S. stock and bond markets are both closed on Friday, July 3 for the Independence Day holiday, since July 4 falls on a Saturday. The bond market also closes earlier, at 2 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 2, the same day the jobs report is released. Crypto markets trade continuously, but liquidity conditions during the long holiday weekend are worth considering in position sizes.
Markets covered on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USDand all major pairs.
FOMC Minutes (Wednesday July 8, 2026)
Three weeks after the June 17 decision, the Fed publishes the internal minutes of this meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET. The June meeting was important for two reasons: Rates remained unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%, and the updated dot chart shifted the median projection toward at least one rate hike before the end of the year, reversing previous expectations of a decline. This was also Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as president.
Warsh declined to submit his own point for the dot plot, the first president to abstain from the projection, and said a new task force would review the dot plot along with the rest of the Fed’s forward guidance. This places a greater reporting burden on the minutes and each communiqué between meetings.
The minutes provide details that the political declaration and press conference do not provide: how divided the commission was, what arguments were accepted and how it formulated the trade-off between still-high inflation and a labor market that has so far remained resilient.
Traders will read them specifically to learn whether the July 28-29 meeting is truly action-oriented, or whether the committee’s hawkish focus is an older position.
On July 8, the result of the July 2 NFP will already be available, which gives the minutes additional context. A good jobs report followed by minutes that reflect genuine hawkish conviction creates a different market environment than the two isolated cases.
Rate-sensitive assets, including cryptocurrencies, have historically responded to FOMC communications in both directions. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Markets covered on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USDAnd margin pairs with rate-path sensitivity.
CPI: June data (Tuesday July 14, 2026)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the June CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET on July 14, 15 days before the FOMC decision. May’s headline was +4.2% year-over-year, with energy accounting for more than 60% of the monthly increase. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased slightly to +2.9% year-on-year.
By the time this print arrives, traders will have the July 2 NFP and the July 8 minutes. The IPC is the third step in this sequence. A June issue that shows continued elevation in headlines, particularly if driven by components other than energy, strengthens the case for action at the July meeting.
A deceleration of the core gives the committee more room to maneuver while signaling patience. The Fed has made it clear that it is closely monitoring the path of inflation; this release is the last major inflation reading before the decision.
This session also corresponds to when JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs report their second quarter results before the market opens, adding a second layer of potential volatility to the morning. Traders managing their exposure through July 14 face data risks on multiple fronts simultaneously. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Markets covered on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, XRP/USDAnd margin pairs.
JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs second quarter results (Tuesday July 14, 2026)
Second-quarter banking results begin July 14, and JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have confirmed they will report results before the open. It is also not a direct crypto catalyst. What traders are watching is what their trading and capital markets revenues indicate about institutional risk appetite in the April-June period, a quarter defined by rate uncertainty, high inflation and the lingering economic fallout from the Middle East conflict.
JPMorgan’s first quarter beat estimates by more than 9%, with revenue up 10% year over year. Goldman also beat first-quarter EPS. The question these reports raise is whether these conditions persisted or deteriorated in the second quarter.
Broad risk sentiment following earnings from major banks can carry over into crypto trading sessions, especially in the early hours of the day when these numbers and the CPI are digested simultaneously.
Markets covered on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD and other major pairs as a reading of risk sentiment.
Also on the calendar
ISM Manufacturing PMI, Wednesday, July 1: June manufacturing activity release at 10:00 a.m. ET on release day, an early week read on the health of the sector ahead of Thursday’s NFP.
ISM Services PMI, Monday July 6: reading of services, moved to Monday of the third usual working day on the occasion of the July 3 public holiday. The services cover the largest part of the US economy and complete the picture of activity before the release of Wednesday’s minutes.
Federal Reserve Beige Book, Wednesday, July 15: The Qualitative Survey of Economic Conditions in the Fed’s 12 Districts will be released at 4:15 p.m. ET, the most recent anecdotal input ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.
Final context
The July 1-15 sequence paints a multi-level picture of the macroeconomic environment ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. The NFP first, then the minutes which contextualize what the committee already thought, then the CPI as the last major inflation read before the decision. Each version sharpens or complicates the one that precedes it.
The following week, this picture expands even further: the second quarter GDP advance estimate and June PCE will both be released on July 30, the day after the July 29 FOMC decision.
As always, traders with a clear view of their exposure on these dates are better off than those who respond to each impression as soon as it arrives.
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