Bitcoin is poised to close 2025 in the red if it fails to close above $94,000 by New Year’s Eve.
The oldest and largest cryptocurrency fell 5.7% in 2025. It performed poorly during Christmas week, while the US stock market hit new highs.
And traders are now cautious, with some fearing that silence Bitcoin the performance could continue until early January.
BTC caution in the short term
According to options analytics platform Leavitas, short-term positioning implied volatile markets, with a preference for downside protection among sophisticated players.
This was illustrated by the decline in delta risk reversal (RR, orange) over 1 week, highlighting renewed demand for hedging or selling (bearish bets).
Source: X/Laevitas
In fact, all durations (1 week to 1 year) were negative, implying that institutions preferred to hedge rather than bet on a strong rise or breakout scenario.
For a positive change in market sentiment and renewed bullish momentum, the RR 25-Delta should return to 0 or turn positive.
According to the Singapore-based crypto trading desk, QCP Capitala firm direction for BTC could be formed after liquidity returns.
“With open interest falling by around 50% post-expiration (Dec. 26), conviction remains limited. Capital is being sidelined and management is likely waiting for liquidity to return.”
Institutional demand for BTC declines
Cautious positioning in the options market also reflects a similar trend in institutional demand. End of 2025, the US Spot ETF outings hit a total of $5.5 billion – the highest since their debut in 2024.
Source: CryptoQuant
However, the outflows appear to be driven by hedge funds exiting their positions after the lucrative core trading yield fell by half, from 10% to 5%.
In fact, cumulative ETF inflows are down just 9% from their October peak of $62 billion. In other words, there is still some long-term conviction among most ETF holders despite the fourth quarter pullback.
Source: Bloomberg/Galaxy Research
That being said, the market rout in Q4 2025 was accelerated by several factors, including the October 10 crash and the revision of the MSCI BTC Treasury Companies Index.
With the risk of withdrawal from the MSCI strategy still high at +75% in the first quarter of 2025, the market could remain range-bound until the result in mid-January.
For its part, BTC has remained stuck below $90,000 since mid-December, with overhead resistance at $94,000. This lateral structure could continue until early January.
Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView
Final Thoughts
- Options traders were betting that the BTC selloff might have eased, but the $85,000 to $94,000 price range could extend into early 2026.
- ETF outflows hit a record $5.5 billion in Q4 2025, but long-term conviction remains.
