- Toncoin showed signs of overvaluation in the charts
- Medium-term holders sold the token after the failed breakout beyond $6.
Toncoin (TON), at press time, was down almost 14% from its late September high – $6.13. That’s not all, as the market structure of the 10th largest crypto asset by market capitalization was also bearish on the daily time frame.
Source: In the block
The correlation matrix also highlighted Toncoin’s recent underperformance. For example – Over the past month, it has had a +0.26 correlation with Bitcoin (BTC), with the latter up 10.5% over the same period.
To evaluate this further, AMBCrypto studied other metrics to understand TON’s chances of catching up.
Evidence of accumulation in recent weeks
Source: In the block
Exchange net flows showed that 5.11 million tonnes moved out of exchanges in the last 24 hours. This was a bullish sign as it suggested accumulation. Over the past 30 days, net flows reached -1.73 million TON.
Simply put, the trend of the last 24 hours is not the same as that observed during the month. Selling pressure and token inflows were also spotted earlier this week.
Source: Santiment
The network value-to-transaction (NVT) ratio, calculated from daily circulation, has also been trending upward since September. The high NVT meant that the market capitalization of the asset was high relative to the tokens traded – a sign that the asset might be overvalued.
The realized HODL cap waves (90-180 days) have also started to decline over the last three weeks. This implied that coins held for 90 to 180 days were spent or moved – a distribution signal. This could affect the chances of a rally on the charts.
Price Action Indices for Traders and Investors
Source: TON/USDT on TradingView
HODL wave data and rising NVT resulted in on-chain bearish results. The daily price chart also presented a bearish outlook. The last significant high was $6.13, which TON must surpass to establish a new uptrend.
Read Toncoin (TON) Price Prediction 2024-25
The OBV and RSI indicated lackluster demand and neutral momentum, respectively.
With a resistance area above $5.4 from the bearish order block, TON bulls need to regroup and attack or risk being left behind while BTC rallies.
