Over the years, investors have tried to predict the lowest Bitcoin price in each bear market by different metrics, techniques, and ways. Some of them would have done it with some accuracy, while others would have noticed a discrepancy. Recently, a pseudonymous crypto analyst who goes by @cryptocupra on Platform X (formerly Twitter) shared his own lower prediction, using a 23-bar theory.
How Bitcoin funds have performed in the past
In the post shared on the social media platform, the crypto analyst explained that there were 23 bars that predicted the bottom of each Bitcoin bear cycle. Apparently, these 23 bars have been accurate for the last three cycles and therefore could end up predict another bottom this time.
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The analyst explains this theory using the 1-month Bitcoin chart, showing how many monthly bars it takes until the bottom is reached. Delving into the past, the crypto analyst highlights the first iteration of this 23-bar theory which took place in the bear market of 2014. The analysis shows that this 23-month period, or approximately 2 years, is an expansion phase, often acting as a launching pad for the price towards the next bull market.
Counting the monthly closes, this shows that there were a total of 23 monthly closes before the bottom was reached. Following this, the price of Bitcoin rebounded, and this movement inevitably led to the start of the next bull market cycle.
Again, the crypto analyst says this is repeating itself in the 2018 bull market. As in 2014, there were a total of 21-23 monthly bars, and once these were completed, the crypto analyst said the bottom was in, and then the next gathering began.
The most recent of these iterations dates back to the 2022 bear market, where the analyst once again highlights this theory. They explain that the Bitcoin price experienced the same 23 bars before hitting the low and that the 2024-2025 rally began in the months that followed.
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Today, in 2026, the analyst believes that this trend is likely to repeat itself. If this is the case, it means that the bottom has been reached and Bitcoin has now entered an expansion phase within the 23 bars. If this happens, then it could mark the bottom point and trigger the start of another bull market. According to the crypto analyst, history does not lie and the price of BTC should therefore become parabolic again.
Featured image of Dall.E, chart by TradingView.com
