Key takeaways
Why is the price of Plasma falling despite a green market?
Upcoming unlocks, collapsing activity, and a sharp decline in the TVL stablecoin have weakened XPL’s short-term structure.
What on-chain signals showed XPL’s momentum fading?
DEX volume, daily users, and number of transactions declined steadily through November, aligning with a bearish technical pattern.
Plasma fell more than 11% in the past few hours, even as the broader market traded in the green for most of the day.
This decline places Plasma (XPL) alongside Starknet (STRK), which also posted double-digit losses during the same window.
XPL extended its downtrend after the post-launch hype died down. This first rally was supported by an airdrop worth around 10,000 XPL for initial users.
As prices fell, on-chain activity followed the same path, weakening the token’s momentum.
What is causing the Plasma token to go down?
The first wave of sales stems from the upcoming unlock on November 25.
Around 88.88 million XPL, valued at $18.13 million, was expected to be released, leaving more than 80% of the supply still blocked. This is the largest weekly token release of around $80 million in the industry.
Source: DéfiLlama
Still, long-term traction has been difficult elsewhere.
Stablecoin TVL has fallen 68% since October and 8.24% on a weekly basis. Stablecoin’s market cap stood at nearly $1.82 billion, while the overall TVL dropped to $6.695 billion, with bridges contributing $5.79 billion of that total.
Source: Dune
Cumulative transactions reached a new high, but daily activity slowed.
The number of transactions increased from 42,398 to 39,725. Daily new users were only 137 and returning users stood at 1,831.
DEX volume fell to $8.39 million at press time from its peak of $47.81 million on November 19. Most usage metrics have been trending downward since late October, a decline reflected in price charts.
Bears expand their control
On the charts, XPL price showed that the altcoin was in a bearish structure, trading inside a trending channel. XPL is down more than 36% over the past five days.
Bull Bear Power (BBP) dominated over the past five days, while net volume was negative $5.07 million. The XPL bears seemed to be gaining momentum and the next target was $0.15 if dominance was maintained.
Conversely, breaking above resistance would invalidate the current setup, suggesting a decline to $0.15.
Source: TradingView
Overall, XPL was largely bearish with sellers showing more momentum. This portends a larger breakout as on-chain activity was also following the same trajectory as price.
However, a resurgence in bullish action could reverse direction, even though the price has shown no signs.
