More than 4 million euros were invested in the presidential election markets just before the results fell, amid suspicions of insider trading stemming from exit poll leaks, for a total volume exceeding 110 million euros.
This echoes previous bans from France, Belgium and Poland, as governments aggressively pursue decentralized platforms to control them.
Betting boom triggers crackdown
Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to trade shares on event outcomes, yes or no bets settled in USDC stablecoin, often evaluating information faster than surveys. SRIJ considers the unlicensed platform to be outright gambling, illegal under 2015 Portuguese laws that ban political betting and limit approved bets to sports or casino games. Hours before polls closed, the odds shifted dramatically: Socialist candidate António José Seguro’s probability of victory jumped from 60% to 95%, while his rivals fell, matching the private leaks of exit polls around 6 p.m. that journalists had access to first. Regulators gave 48 hours’ notice of the shutdown on Friday, but on Monday the site remained accessible, leading to potential ISP blocks.
The clash comes amid a broader decline: Prediction markets hit weekly volume of $6 billion last week, led by Kalshi ($2.15 billion), OpinionLabs ($1.94 billion) and Polymarket ($1.76 billion). Portugal joins more than 30 countries under restrictions, amid US investigations into election betting. A case in point: American users bet billions on the chances of the 2024 elections, where Polymarket rated Trump’s chances better than Vegas Books.
🚨BREAKING: 🇵🇹Portugal orders the closure of Polymarket.
Regulators say prediction markets tied to political events violate state gambling laws.
Polymarket was given 48 hours to shut down its operations. pic.twitter.com/LDsNnXhNRo
– Coinbureau (@coinbureau) January 20, 2026
Credible data from Dune Analytics shows Polymarket’s fees for 2025 exceed $100 million, but regulatory heat puts user funds at risk, with SRIJ warning there is no guarantee of recovery for unlicensed games.
Learn more about Polymarket
DAZN partners with Polymarket to integrate real-time prediction probabilities into live sports broadcasts, transforming the way fans interact with games. This partnership overlays crowd-sourced betting odds directly onto feeds, highlighting changing dynamics, trends and likely outcomes as matches unfold, all within DAZN’s unified app that already mixes live sports, scores, news, FanZone chat and regulated betting. Prediction probabilities come from markets where users trade stocks on yes/no events (like “will this team score next?”), with stock prices reflecting collective confidence, updated instantly for viewers. Soon, while awaiting CFTC licenses, US users will trade these predictions in the app, expanding DAZN beyond passive monitoring to active speculation.
DAZN expands what it means to experience sports.
We collaborated with @Polymarché to bring a powerful new real-time layer to the DAZN ecosystem.
From live and on-demand sports to scores, news, FanZone and betting on regulated markets, DAZN is already unifying the best of sports in… pic.twitter.com/unE4pKyR4Y
– DAZN (@dazngroup) January 20, 2026
Imagine a tense football match: when your striker breaks free, the on-screen odds read a 72% chance of scoring, reflecting the thousands of live bets, whetting your thrill without leaving the stream. This builds on the rise of prediction markets, where platforms like Polymarket reached weekly volumes of $6 billion last week, blending the speed of blockchain with sports fandom to rival traditional bookmakers. For broadcasters, this means more loyal viewers; for fans, data-driven hype that feels personal. DAZN’s move indicates that sports media are seeking the edge of DeFi, transforming broadcasts into interactive arenas where information flows more freely than beer at halftime.
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