Quantus warns that quantum computers could threaten $2 trillion in Bitcoin and crypto assets

Google and IBM move forward Bitcoin Quantum threat closer

Quantum computing is no longer a distant risk for cryptoaccording to a new report from Quantus. This becomes a planning issue for an industry that still lacks a clear migration path.

The report, The State of Quantum: What Cryptocurrency Can’t Afford to Ignore, argues that advances in quantum hardware and cryptanalytic research have reduced the timeline for a possible attack on public-key cryptography. Quantus claims that more than $2 trillion in digital assets remain secured by systems that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break.

Shor’s algorithm is the focus. The calculation has been known for decades: a large enough quantum computer could break RSA and elliptic curve cryptography, including ECDSA and Ed25519. These signature systems secure bitcoinEthereum and many others blockchain systems.

The difference now is the pace. Quantus cites recent work by Google, IBM, Quantinuum, and other researchers as evidence that error correction, gate fidelity, and resource estimates are improving faster than many others. crypto expected teams. The report says the planning horizon has shifted to 2030, not some abstract point several decades away.

Traditional internet companies can evolve crypto through software updates. Blockchains face a much more difficult task. Public keys are visible forever once exposed on-chain. Users control their own assets. Wallet manufacturers, exchanges, custodians, validators, and governance bodies should all coordinate a transition.

” Cryptocurrency “If the industry waits until the threat is obvious, users will be asked to move value under pressure.”

Bitcoin presents the most difficult case. Quantus cites estimates that between 2.3 and 3.7 million bitcoin are permanently lost because the owners no longer control the private keys. These coins cannot be moved to quantum-secure addresses, leaving networks facing a dilemma over whether vulnerable assets should remain exposed, be frozen, or be dealt with via another mechanism.

The technical cost is also high. A standard bitcoin The ECDSA signature and public key contain approximately 97 bytes of cryptographic payload. A comparable transaction using ML-DSA-87, a post-quantum signature system, is approximately 7,187 bytes long. This is about 70 times more and would put pressure on block space without greater architectural changes.

BIP 360 has emerged as a possible solution bitcoin migration route, but Quantus says that doesn’t solve all the problems. Larger transactions, limited hardware wallet support, and unmigrated coins remain on hold.

“The only practical solution is to set a strict deadline for account owners to migrate their tokens to quantum-secure accounts, after which all tokens held in vulnerable accounts will be permanently frozen,” said Auryn Macmillan, co-founder of Gnosis Guild, in response to the report.

Risk is not limited to individual portfolios. The report warns that stable coin admin keys, bridge validators, oracle networks, multisig custody systems and governance contracts also rely on traditional signatures. Failure at these times could impact credit markets, derivatives, automated market makersand institutional care.

NIST finalized its first post-quantum cryptography standards in August 2024, making basic tools available for migration. Signal, Apple, Google and Cloudflare have already started moving parts of the Internet infrastructure to quantum-resistant systems. Cryptocurrencyon the other hand, always wonders where to start.

Lana Ivina of CircuitLabs noted that new quantum-resistant chains would not necessarily be the preference of crypto users. “Many users may prefer to stay on a chain with a smaller but well-understood quantum attack surface, especially if that chain has a credible path to upgrades, hard forks, or user-level migration patterns.”

Quantus calls the coming divide the “Great Quantum Filter,” a period during which capital can move from traditional chains to networks built with post-quantum security from the start. This framework also serves its own market position, since Quantus is building a quantum-secure layer 1 blockchain.

Still, the report’s broader warning is hard to ignore. The problem with cryptography is not just whether quantum computers will happen. It’s a question of whether the industry can coordinate before it does.