Amid the recent market rally, Solana (SOL) surged about 10% from last week’s lows, reclaiming the $82 level and retesting major resistance. However, some market observers have warned that the rally could be short-lived if the cryptocurrency does not turn a key level into support in the coming days.
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Solana Price in a “consolidation trap”
On Thursday, Solana jumped 2.5% to try to reclaim the $84 zone after losing that zone Wednesday evening. The altcoin has traded between $76 and $92 since February, hovering in the lower half of that range for the past two weeks.
Ali Martinez highlighted a structural pattern that has been “remarkably consistent” since October 2025. The analyst notably explained that Solana repeated a three-step cycle every time it lost momentum over the past six months.
According to Martinez, the model starts with the recovery of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). This is followed by the rapid failure to hold the 50-day SMA as support. Finally, SOL enters the “consolidation trap,” a brief sideways period of “complacency” before the true descent begins.
As the chart shows, the cryptocurrency recorded this trend in November 2025 and January 2026, when it fell below the 50-day SMA and consolidated for weeks before the next sell-off, eventually resolving lower and hitting a new local low.
Solana broke above the 50-day SMA in mid-March, when it hit its local high of $97, and has since fallen below it. Today, the altcoin is in its consolidation phase, “drifting sideways” between $79 and $81 and sitting below the key SMA near the $86 mark.
“If this trend continues, this sideways movement is not a ‘stabilization’ – it is the winding of a new leg down. Based on previous cases, a failure to quickly reclaim the $86 level could project a move towards $52,” Martinez asserted.
SOL failure imminent?
Market watcher Leviathan noted that Solana has retested the lower zone of its local range seven times since February and that each rebound weakens after each retest.
At the time of writing, price has been rejected from the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), suggesting that a retest and breakout of the key $76-$80 support zone could be next. “Historically, the more a support level is tested, the weaker it becomes. Monitor this level closely,” he said.
Analyst Crypto Lens shared a similar outlook, highlighting a potential bearish formation on SOL’s chart. According to the article, the cryptocurrency has been trading in a bear flag pattern since early February and collapsed when it fell below the $81 area in late March.
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This pattern also developed in late 2025, leading to a 54% correction following Solana’s breakout from trend. After the recent rebound, the altcoin is retesting the lower boundary of the pattern from support, which could turn this level into resistance if the momentum does not hold.
“This is not a random price movement, it is a trend,” warned the analyst. “If this continues, SOL could head towards the $45 zone.”
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com
