I invested a chunk of money in 90% BTC/10% alts over the last 2 years with a cost basis of around BTC $65k USD. Was DCAing in 2022-2024. My strategy was, based on historic patterns related to the halving cycle, to DCA in during crypto winter (I was a bit late to the party, really ramped up my buys in '24) and take it out about 500 days after the halving.
Well, we're 450 days post-halving starting tomorrow, and 500 lands around Labor Day.
Today, I'm opening up my DCA window, setting a few larger limit orders in the 125-130k range, and I'm going to take profits gradually over the next 3 months. The Bitcoin I sold this morning earned me about 85% profit, which feels great. It's a bit goofy that the S&P 500 would've given me about the same return over the same time horizon, but fortunately I invested in that, too.
It's possible we could see a rise into the 130s or even 140k range or higher, and that would give me even bigger profits. However, this late in the cycle, it's also possible we could see a cyclical top any day now.
Taking profits is always a risk, and I'm sure I'll feel a little FOMO if the price goes even higher after I've sold half my stack. However, the risk/reward ratio right now looks right, and I'm proud of myself for sticking to my plan. I've been burned in the last cycle waiting for just the right time to buy ('20, '22) or sell ('21, ETH in '24), and learned my lesson.
Here's a reminder to you all, especially newcomers, to remember to take profits. Have an exit strategy, and stick to it. Don't get left holding the bag when the bull market ends. Upswings have been short and sweet this cycle. Enjoy the green days while they last!
