Key Notes
- Tether accumulated Bitcoin amid a market-wide correction on the first day of 2026.
- Bitcoin saw more than $1 billion in ETF outflows, with its weakest fourth-quarter performance in years.
- The analyst suggests three key scenarios for Bitcoin’s movements in the coming months.
2025 ended with weak Bitcoin performance
BTC
$89,810
24h volatility:
0.3%
Market capitalization:
$1.79T
Flight. 24h:
$44.60 billion
but Tether, the company behind the world’s largest USDT stablecoin
USDT
$1.00
24h volatility:
0.1%
Market capitalization:
$187.03 billion
Flight. 24h:
$80.46 billion
saw an opportunity to buy more BTC.
As Bitcoin fell from the $88,000 mark, Tether added another 8,889 BTC, valued at $778.7 million, to its reserves, Lookonchain shared in an article X. The company withdrew the assets from crypto exchange Bitfinex.
Attached(@Tether_to) removed another 8,889 $BTC($778.7 million) #Bitfinex at his spare address 5 hours ago.
Tether now holds 96,370 $BTC($8.46 billion) in total. pic.twitter.com/NLowYx79bx
– Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 1, 2026
The company behind USDT now holds 96,370 BTC, worth $8.46 billion.
Despite bullish calls from the community, under Lookonchain’s post, Bitcoin continued its bearish consolidation. The leading cryptocurrency is down 1.1% over the past 24 hours and is trading at just under $87,500 at the time of writing.
U.S.-based BTC spot exchange-traded funds also saw a net outflow of $348.1 million on Dec. 31, according to SoSoValue data.
These investment products recorded a monthly net outflow of $1.09 billion in December 2025, reflecting weak institutional demand amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Is recovery possible?
The crypto market has always been known for its high volatility. However, the recent market situation, with more lows than highs, is the product of multiple negative catalysts, including macroeconomic conditions, institutional outflows, massive whale sales and weak retail demand.
Due to the prevailing bearish momentum, Bitcoin just recorded its fourth weakest quarter, with a decline of 23%, for the first time since 2018, according to data from Coinglass.
A CryptoQuant analyst says Bitcoin’s current momentum suggests “insufficient structural confirmation for strong bullish momentum.”
Reframing Bitcoin in 2026: Scenarios, Structure and On-Chain Signals
“At present, a range-limited structure remains the most plausible benchmark for 2026, subject to reassessment as structural data evolves. ” – By @xwinfinance
Read more ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/q0SEUZrxv6
– CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 1, 2026
The analyst expects three key scenarios for Bitcoin.
First, expectations of lower rates but weak economic recovery could put Bitcoin in a highly volatile range of $80,000 to $140,000.
Second, the growing risk of recession, which would trigger large ETF outflows, could push the BTC price towards the $50,000 zone.
Last but not least, if BTC-based investment products experience larger capital outflows under favorable macroeconomic conditions, the leading crypto asset could trade in a range of $120,000 to $170,000.
following
Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article is intended to provide accurate and current information, but should not be considered financial or investment advice. Because market conditions can change quickly, we encourage you to verify the information for yourself and consult a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Wahid has been analyzing and reporting on the latest trends in the decentralized ecosystem since 2019. He has over 4,000 articles to his credit and his work has been featured in some of the leading media outlets including Yahoo Finance, Investing.com, Cointelegraph, and Benzinga. Besides reporting, Wahid likes to connect the dots between DeFi and macro in his newsletter, On-chain Monk.
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