Ethereum (ETH) must discuss its scalability constraints to maintain the growth of layer 2 networks (L2) and avoid the bottlenecks of future transactions, according to the DEFI report.
The firm has declared in a recent report that, as L2 networks, networks on the scale of the adoption of users and the flow of transactions, competition for the limited blob space of Ethereum could increase costs and undermine the roadmap of the network scaling.
Ethereum supports L2S via “blobs”, low-cost data storage mechanisms introduced with the Ethereum 4844 improvement proposal (EIP-4844). However, the current capacity of three blobs targets per block may become inadequate.
Even after the next Pectra upgrade, which will increase the objective to six blobs per block, the forecasts suggest that rapid expansion in L2 could exceed the available bandwidth.
Simulations show that an increase of 10 times of transactions per second through the main L2, such as the base, the arbitrum and optimism, could push transaction costs at unsustainable levels, potentially reaching $ 0.64 per transaction.
Although the planned upgrades, such as Peerdas and Fusaka, should further extend the capacity of Blob, the projections indicate that Ethereum will have to support at least 33 Blobs per block to maintain the L2 transaction costs less than $ 0.02.
Without these upgrades, Ethereum risks congestion which could threaten the viability of the strategy of scaling centered on L2.
Base as a case study
Base, the layer 2 blockchain of Coinbase, provides a tangible example of opportunities and challenges inherent in the current Ethereum model. Since its launch, Base has generated more than $ 106 million in use costs, aboard more than 155 million addresses and has balanced 1.9 million ETH, which represents 1.6% of the circulating supply of Ethereum.
The applications operating on the basis have accumulated $ 768 million in cumulative fees, reflecting substantial demand from users and network activity.
Since its creation, Base has also contributed to approximately $ 4.5 million in Blob costs and regulations to Load 1 validators in Ethereum, highlighting the planned economic synergy between L2 growth and Ethereum income model.
However, despite the basic success in the expansion of Ethereum’s scope, it also illustrates the pressure exerted on the L1 infrastructure. In the past six months, the base alone has on average 93 transactions per second, a figure which, when it is multiplied on several L2 on a scale, raises concerns concerning the sustainable allocation of the Blob space.
Although the base stimulates net demand for ETEHREUM and strengthens the wider network through applications and growth of Stablescoin, currently guaranteeing almost $ 10 billion in total value, its scaling trajectory highlights the urgent need for Ethereum to maintain accessibility and speed for end users in all L2.
Outlook for Ethereum L2 strategy
The L2 roadmap represents a deliberate strategic pivot for Ethereum, moving to a business model focused on security, settlement and scalability for external networks.
In this model, the L2 such as the base could unload the transaction activity from the mainnet while generating economic value via Blob costs.
However, the report argues that the success of this model depends on Ethereum’s ability to evolve Blob’s capacity without introducing prohibitive costs.
If the scale upgrades do not follow the pace of the adoption of L2, Ethereum could face competitive pressure from alternative data solutions or even L1 competitors that can offer lower -scale transaction costs.
Current projections suggest that if the volume of transactions between the main L2 develops considerably without improvements proportional to the Blob flow, Ethereum will return to the current costs of costs on its base layer, canceling the advantages of the cost provided by the L2 strategy.
Ethereum’s annualized income as part of an L2 Décupleta scaling scenario would approach $ 1.4 billion, almost equivalent to its generation of fees in the past year.
In summary, Ethereum’s ability to support a flourishing L2 ecosystem depends on technical progress and continuous execution linked to the principal.
The fact of not extending the blob space could compromise its role as a skeleton of decentralized applications and settlement for the next generation of blockchain infrastructure.
