Contrary to the dominant crypto market narrative of a bull market, the liquidity movement tells a different story.
What is playing out is a narrative-driven rally, in which certain altcoins in different sectors experience capital inflows while the rest of the market oscillates or bleeds.
In a typical bull market, Bitcoin (BTC) and a wide range of altcoins experience significant and sustained rises. This time around, Bitcoin is down, having failed to hold above the $80,000 level before dropping to $77,000.
AMBCrypto analyzed the factors as to why this is not yet a bull market.
Three phases limited to a range reveal a rotating market, not an expanding one
The cryptocurrency market cap chart, excluding stablecoins, reveals that the market is experiencing capital turnover and is not in a sustained uptrend.
The chart shows that market capitalization moves within a limited range through three distinct phases: November 2025 to January 2026, February to mid-April, and the most recent range still forming at the time of publication.
In each of these ranges, new capital enters the market but is directed towards select altcoins rather than circulating widely in the market.
Between May 19 and the date of publication, $62.8 billion in inflows moved into the market, benefiting a handful of altcoins – not even Bitcoin – confirming a narrative-driven rather than structurally bullish market.
For this to turn into a true bull market, capital turnover would need to give way to consistent and sustained capital inflows.
The successive crossing of three key levels of market capitalization would confirm this change: first $2.4 trillion, then $2.7 trillion and finally $2.9 trillion.
A breach of the first level would specifically confirm that capital is returning to the market after a long outflow period.
AI, privacy and RWAs absorb the bulk of inbound flows
One of the clearest signals that the market is not yet completely bullish is the Altcoin Season Index, which stood at 38 at press time, well below the 75 level that would confirm the start of the altcoin season.
A true bull market would be characterized by a rise in the altcoin index entering this territory. For the moment, this situation remains clearly moderate, reinforcing the image of a selective rather than broadly expansive market.
Over the past 90 days, capital has flowed primarily into AI-focused sectors, privacy-focused assets, as well as TradFi and real-world asset-related tokens.
Over the past 72 hours, the launch of the Hyperliquid (HYPE) Spot exchange-traded fund aimed at US investors has generated a major influx specifically into this asset.
ZCash (ZEC) and Near Protocol (NEAR) have also been major beneficiaries as the privacy narrative continues to gain momentum in the market.
The previous consolidation phase between February and mid-April saw similar dynamics unfold, with companies like Virtuals (V), Canton Network (CC), and Siren (SIREN) all hitting new highs.
A move that shows narrative motivation rather than a reflection of the general strength of the crypto market. Currently, the market remains in the same narrative phase rather than a true bull market.
Final summary
- The crypto market has seen $62.8 billion in new inflows since May 19, benefiting certain altcoins rather than the market as a whole.
- The Altcoin Season Index sits at 38, well below the 70 level which would confirm the altcoin season.
