Next up: four Magnificent 7 companies report tonight. First quarter GDP, PCE inflation and the employment cost index print simultaneously tomorrow morning.
FOMC Rate Decision — Today, April 29
The Federal Open Market Committee releases its policy statement at 2:00 p.m. EST this afternoon, followed by Chairman Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. The market expects the rate to remain between 3.50 and 3.75%. What is less certain is the language.
This is not a screening meeting. There is no dot plot, nor updated summary of economic projections, meaning Powell’s statement and responses carry all the interpretive weight of how markets interpret the Fed’s stance through June.
The committee is under simultaneous pressure from both sides of its mandate. Core PCE remains above the 2% target. Conflict in the Middle East kept energy prices high throughout the quarter, boosting overall inflation.
At the same time, GDP for the fourth quarter of 2025 has been revised down to 0.5%, and the first official figures for first quarter growth will arrive tomorrow morning.
The question Powell will press: Does the committee view persistent inflation as a reason to hold out until summer, or are signs of slowing growth starting to tip the scales?
If the text of the declaration recognizes growth risks without renouncing vigilance regarding inflation, this will be interpreted as a modest conciliatory trend. If the tone emphasizes patience more, especially any phrase around inflation remaining “too high,” this reinforces the posture of holding out longer.
Historically, meetings without projections, in which the main decision is fixed in advance, have produced decisions driven entirely by tone.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD and all USD-denominated spot and margin pairs.
First quarter GDP, March PCE and employment cost index — tomorrow April 30
Three versions of data are printed simultaneously Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET:
- Advance estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2026
- March Personal Income and Spending Report (which contains the PCE Price Index)
- First quarter employment cost index.
Each is individually significant. Together, they represent the most comprehensive early morning picture of the current state of the U.S. economy.
Gross domestic product (GDP)
The fourth quarter of 2025 came in at 0.5% of annualized real GDP, a figure that has been revised significantly downward in all three of its estimates.
The forward estimate for the first quarter will be the first official market reading indicating whether this weakness was an inflection or continued deterioration. Unlike the fourth quarter, the first quarter absorbed a period of high energy costs and the initial period of uncertainty in the tariff regime following the IEEPA decision.
Tomorrow’s figure will be presented according to the target that Powell sets this afternoon.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)
The March PCE inflation figure is the Fed’s preferred indicator and the one that most directly updates the committee’s internal calculations.
Core PCE remained above target. March represents the first full month of Middle East-led energy impact on consumer prices, alongside the early impact of tariff-related commodity price increases.
While the March figure shows a reacceleration, the combination with a weak GDP figure produces the political constraint that markets have priced in: growth is slowing, not inflation. If PCE moderates, the path forward looks significantly different.
Employment Cost Index (ECI)
The ECI measures total compensation costs adjusted for the composition of the workforce, making it the Fed’s clearest structural analysis of wage pressure, distinct from more volatile payroll-based measures.
The fourth quarter of 2025 was 0.7% quarterly. A strong first-quarter reading, coming at the same time as sluggish growth and persistent inflation, would be the data pattern most likely to push any rate adjustment beyond the summer.
Traders monitoring probabilistic pricing from the June meeting should view the ECI as the potentially most important figure of an already important morning.
The three data points will be interpreted through the framework established by Powell’s press conference the previous afternoon. It is this sequencing that makes today’s Fed communication the interpretive anchor for the rest of the week.
Markets concerned: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, spot and margin pairs on Kraken Pro.
Four companies that collectively represent a significant share of global market capitalization are releasing their first-quarter 2026 results tonight. Timing is important: The Fed’s statement will be absorbed and digested before a single earnings release is released.
The question common to all four calls is whether AI capital spending is matched by revenue growth at a sufficient pace.
Alphabet forecast capital spending of $175 billion to $185 billion in 2026, roughly double 2025 levels, during its fourth-quarter report. Meta’s 2026 investment plan was almost double its 2025 spending. The growth of Microsoft’s Azure has become a bellwether for enterprise appetite for AI spending. Amazon’s AWS comment adds the dimension of infrastructure as a service.
Each management team will face direct questions from analysts about the pace of monetization relative to the scale of investment.
What traders are watching: Is advice language holding up, accelerating or retreating?
Confident bullish guidance in several names indicates that the AI investment thesis remains intact and corporate balance sheets are absorbing macroeconomic headwinds. Cautious comments or forecast reductions in the context of high costs signal something different.
Historically, technology profit groups have influenced broader risk appetite, including in digital asset markets.
Apple reports tomorrow evening, completing the picture with services revenue and supply chain comments on pricing impacts.
Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD and ETH/USD as proxies for risk sentiment.
Coinbase Q1 2026 Results – May 7
Coinbase releases its report after the close on Thursday, May 7. As the largest listed cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase’s first quarter results provide a direct read on institutional and retail trading volumes during a period of sustained macroeconomic volatility.
Trading revenue, subscription and service contributions, and any commentary on stablecoin adoption and on-chain activity are the signals with an industry-wide readout.
Markets affected on Kraken Pro: BTC/USD, ETH/USD.
Non-farm employment (NFP) — Employment situation in April — May 8
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April wages at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, May 8.
The month of March created 178,000 jobs after the decline caused by strikes in February. Unemployment stands at 4.3%. The April report comes the morning after Coinbase’s results and is the first employment data the Fed sees after its own meeting and after the first quarter data set.
The ISM manufacturing employment subindex has been described as “stubbornly stuck in contraction” as companies maintain their workforces amid uncertainty. If the April employment figures are disappointing in this context, the discourse around the Fed’s flexibility is hardening even further.
Affected markets: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, all rate-sensitive pairs.
Level 3: also coming soon
Strategy (MSTR) reports its first quarter 2026 results on May 5. The company holds approximately 713,502 BTC under fair value accounting, meaning that price movements are directly reflected in book value and reported earnings; the accumulation comment is the signal to watch for.
The April ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released on May 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET, providing the first post-FOMC and post-GDP activity survey data.
JOLTS Job Postings for March and ISM Services PMI for April both follow on May 5 and 6, respectively.
Final context
Last week this calendar was in preparation. Today is execution.
This afternoon’s FOMC statement sets the interpretive framework for all of the following: the GDP, PCE, and ECI data that will be printed tomorrow morning, the technology earnings that will span both days, and the jobs report that will close the fortnight on May 8.
Each data point will be read according to what Powell says in the coming hours.
Structured thinking about sequence (what each event is, what question it answers, and what scenario it confirms or challenges) is what differentiates deliberate positioning from reactive noise.
The markets to navigate there can be found on Kraken Pro.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risks.
