Dogecoin I just suffered a big drop over the weekend, falling below $0.20 after failing to extend its rebound from early October. This drop was enough to erase several weeks of steady gains and shake retail confidence. However, despite the volatility, the monthly chart remains bullish. Despite the weekend crash, Dogecoin is well above its 25-month moving average and trading near the same structural zone that preceded past parabolic rallies.
This pattern caught the attention of a technical analyst on
Historical structure reappears on Dogecoin chart
According to to the analyst’s long-term monthly chart, Dogecoin has repeatedly entered explosive bull runs after exhibiting three major technical conditions: a breakout from an extended downtrend, sustained trading above 25MA, and a successful retest phase that confirms structural strength. Each of these setups led to massive price increases, including the 36,000% surge that catapulted DOGE by fractions of a cent to its May 2021 all-time high of $0.7316.
Related reading
As shown in the table below, the same the technical conditions are playing out again. The downtrend line that had capped Dogecoin’s growth since mid-2021 has already been broken and the price is well positioned above the 25MA. The ongoing consolidation represents the retest phase, the same period that preceded the last two major parabolic trades in 2017 and 2021.
Another important observation highlighted by the analyst is that every historical breakout has been preceded by what is known as the NGMI (Not Gonna Make It) phase. This is usually when Dogecoin is trading sideways or falling slightly after breaking out of its multi-month downtrend line.
Will history repeat itself for DOGE?
As it stands, Dogecoin’s monthly price trend is now back around this downward trendline, which it exceeded in late 2024. The last candlestick wick, which was created with Dogecoin’s recent fall to $0.18, saw it touch this trendline very briefly again.
Related reading
However, if Dogecoin’s recurring structural pattern continues to unfold as before, the current downtrend phase could precede another strong rally. The technical alignment, a combination of price stability above the 25MA, the exit from a long-term downtrend and the confirmation of the retest, means that momentum continues to build quietly beneath the surface.
While no chart can guarantee a repeat of the magnitude of 2021, the technical outlook for EᴛʜᴇʀNᴀꜱʏᴏɴᴀL provides a convincing argument that Dogecoin’s broader bull cycle is still intact.
At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.201, down 5.2% and 23% over the past 24 hours and seven days, respectively.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
