Tom Lee returns to his year-end goal of $250,000 Bitcoin

Tom Lee, president of BitMine and CIO of Fundstrat, appears to have backed away from his year-end target of $250,000 for crypto market leader Bitcoin (BTC).

Speaking in a recent interview With CNBC, Lee said that “it is still very likely that Bitcoin will exceed $100,000 before the end of the year.” He added that the crypto will “maybe even” reach a new all-time high (ATH) before the end of 2025.

For the first time, Lee did not predict $250,000 for Bitcoin this year

The recent interview appears to be the first time Lee has not stuck to his bullish prediction that the BTC price would hit $250,000 before the end of the year. He initially launched this price target earlier in 2024.

Lee continued to reiterate his $250,000 price target for BTC until early October, when the largest cryptocurrency by market cap then set a new ATH above $126,000. However, a record liquidation event that resulted in $19 billion disappearing from the market just days after that peak was reached appears to have prompted Lee to revise his year-end target.

Since this liquidation event, the price of BTC has seen a sustained downward trend. Data from CoinMarketCap shows that Bitcoin has fallen more than 19% over the past month. The crypto king is also down more than 27% from the ATH it set in the first week of October.

BTC price performance over the past month (Source: CoinMarketCap)

During the downtrend, BTC fell below the psychological $100,000 level and even below the $90,000 mark. However, the crypto rebounded over 4% in the past 24 hours to return above the $90,000 level to $91,318.66 as of 2:27 a.m. EST.

BTC’s strongest days are yet to come

Although Lee has apparently lowered his year-end target for BTC, he still believes “Bitcoin’s best days are going to come” before the end of 2025.

Lee pointed out that Bitcoin tends to make the majority of its gains over a small number of trading sessions each year. He then noted that the asset typically “moves” in just 10 days per year.

This idea is widely shared among analysts and market executives. Among them is Hunter Horsely, CEO of Bitwise, who said in February 2024 that while investors can’t predict when BTC will see its strong days a year from now, missing BTC’s 10 all-time best days means missing almost all of its returns.

It is difficult to choose the ideal time to buy Bitcoin.

Yesterday is a reminder.

A fantastic analysis of @fundstrat below illustrates this.

TLDR: If you miss the top 10 days of Bitcoin returns each year, you miss the entire return. And you don’t know when those days will come.… pic.twitter.com/vulIAapQX9

– Hunter Horsley (@HHorsley) February 28, 2024

Examining the performance of BTC in 2024 supports this thesis. Last year, crypto’s 10 strongest days generated a combined return of 52%, while the remaining 355% generated an average return of -15%.

Lee’s forecasts have already been lower

If Bitcoin’s best days don’t arrive before the end of the year or if BTC doesn’t break $100,000, it won’t be the first time one of Lee’s predictions has failed.

In early 2018, Lee predicted that Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by 2022, but he was about three years late since BTC only reached that level in October of that year.

However, he has also made some definite decisions over the years. One of these occurred in July 2017, when he predicted that Bitcoin could reach $20,000 by 2022 in a base case and a potential high of $55,000 over the same period in a more bullish scenario.

Bitcoin eventually reached $20,000 in December 2020 and $55,000 in March 2021.

Bullish signals emerge on BTC daily chart

Bullish technical signals have appeared on BTC’s daily chart, which could lead to a year-end rally if traders follow through.

Daily chart for WBTC/USD (Source: GeckoTerminal)

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line recently crossed above the MACD signal line, suggesting that momentum has shifted from bearish to bullish. Buyer strength is also increasing, as suggested by increasing relative strength index (RSI) readings.

BTC may therefore have the support needed to overcome the $94,000 resistance level and reach $105,000 soon. However, a rejection could lead to a decline to $82.6k.

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