“Interestingly, there was no notable relationship between election probabilities and BTC prices during the entire analysis period from June 1 to August 15, 2024. One reason for these weaker-than-expected relationships could be the many cross-currents influencing prices, such as the trajectory of monetary policy in the U.S., concerns about upcoming oversupply, and others, as we have highlighted previously,” David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, told CoinDesk in an email.
