Bitcoin remains in a sensitive transition phase where the structure on higher timeframes is still corrective, while price action on lower timeframes shows signs of stabilization. Recent rebounds have improved near-term sentiment, but the market has yet to provide the type of impulsive force needed to confirm a broader bullish continuation.
Bitcoin price analysis: the daily chart
On the daily time frame, BTC continues to trade below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 100-day MA of $94,000 now acting as the first major dynamic resistance.
The recent recovery attempt stalled precisely in this area, reinforcing it as a key supply zone rather than a recovered trend level. Although price is still respecting the broader upward channel that formed after the strong sell-off, this structure so far looks like a corrective bounce rather than a new upcycle. The lack of strong follow-through after each upward push highlights longer-term buyer hesitation.
A daily close and sustained acceptance above the 100-day moving average would be necessary to materially improve the macroeconomic structure, while continued rejection keeps the risk of another downward rotation active.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart
The 4-hour chart presents a more constructive but still incomplete picture. The asset is consolidating within an ascending channel, repeatedly finding support at the lower limit of $86,000, which confirms the presence of an active buyer base at reduced levels. Each dip in demand has been accompanied by reactive buying, but upward attempts continue to run into internal resistance at the $92,000 and $95,000 zones and the upper boundary of the channel.
Momentum remains relatively moderate and the price has not produced a decisive breakout with expansion in range or volume. Until Bitcoin can break through and sustain above the upper boundary of this channel at $98,000, the structure should be viewed as a consolidation rather than confirmation of a new bullish leg.
Sentiment Analysis
From a derivatives and positioning perspective, the liquidation heatmap highlights a clear imbalance in liquidity distribution. A significant concentration of general liquidity remains concentrated above the current price, particularly in the $90,000 region, suggesting that short exposure is still vulnerable if the asset manages to move higher.
In contrast, the drop in liquidity has already been partially absorbed during the recent decline, reducing the immediate likelihood of a sharp liquidation-driven selloff. This setup creates a scenario in which the decline appears more controlled, while acceleration to the upside would likely depend on a strong enough catalyst to force the price into these overhead liquidation zones.
Until such a move materializes, on-chain data aligns with a broader view of compression and readiness rather than confirmed expansion.
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