The official TRUMP memecoin is down more than 95% from its January 2025 high of $75, and traders who rode that wave are done pretending the story has a second act. Mar-a-Lago’s upcoming conference for the token’s 297 major holders attracted just $1.4 billion in trading volume in the run-up, compared to $12.9 billion ahead of the equivalent 2025 dinner.
What makes this particular collapse worthy of attention is not just the price; it’s the structure underneath. Two entities, a subsidiary of the Trump Organization and a company led by longtime Trump partner Bill Zanker, hold the overwhelming majority of the supply and collect fees on each transaction made.
Trump’s memecoin, $ASSETwas once the talk of Washington. It is now down more than 95% from its 2025 peak.
“People lose on the play, and they get heard," said one crypto investor. "It’s the people on Twitter who say “Fk this coin” or “It’s a scam.” And they are right…
– POLITICS (@politico) April 23, 2026
The Trump family and their partners had earned $320 million in memecoin trading fees by April 2026, while retail buyers absorbed the losses. Calculating beneficiaries is not complicated.
TRUMP is trading today at $2.85, up a modest +1% on the day, with a 24-hour trading volume of $103 million and a market cap of $670 million, making it the 86th largest digital asset by valuation.
(SOURCE: CoinGecko)
TRUMP: From $75 to the bottom of the barrel
The official TRUMP memecoin was launched days before Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, timing that was, well, deliberate. The token hit $75 almost immediately, fueled by a combination of political fervor, FOMO and the kind of social media tornado that only a sitting US president can generate.
The token lost more than half its value within days of the peak, and the bleeding never really stopped. Accusations of insider trading and conflicts of interest quickly followed, and Trump’s broader crypto ecosystem didn’t exactly help sentiment.
Justin Sun, once the principal holder of the 2025 Dinner, sued World Liberty Financial for freezing WLFI’s assets, adding another layer of dysfunction to an already battered brand and sparking a very public war of words with Eric Trump.
Morten Christensen, a crypto investor who still plans to attend the Mar-a-Lago event, put it plainly: “Nobody likes it. People are losing on the coin and they’re being vocal. It’s the people on Twitter who are like ‘F*ck this coin’ or ‘It’s a scam’. And they’re right, basically.
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Can TRUMP Memecoin Price Recover, or Is the Narrative Already Broken?
Let’s be blunt: TRUMP’s chain structure makes a real recovery exceptionally difficult. When the majority of supply relies on two connected entities that profit from trading fees – not price appreciation – the alignment of incentives is destabilized from the start. Think of it like a casino where the house gets a cut whether you win or lose. Retail marketers are the product, not the customer.
David Grider, partner at Finality Capital Partners, noted that memecoins are “very much out of favor right now,” with investors largely pulling out of speculative assets. Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group have fallen 75% since his inauguration, reinforcing the feeling that the entire Trump brand business has deflated.
Even the Capitol’s once-vocal critics are shrugging their shoulders, with a top Senate Democratic aide calling the Mar-a-Lago event “horrible and awful” but adding, “people are seeing it for what it is: a scam…it has slipped to the bottom of the barrel.”
the one who buys $ASSETI hope your plumbing breaks down in the middle of you shitting pic.twitter.com/7xHgfQYY2V
– TraderSZ (@trader1sz) April 22, 2026
Here’s what the three scenarios look like:
- Case of the bull: Trump says something specific and actionable about $TRUMP during his lunch speech at Mar-a-Lago, triggering a short-term spike toward $5-$8. It is unlikely to continue without structural changes, but short-term traders could get a quick move.
- Reference case: The event is unfolding without a significant catalyst, volume remains low, and $TRUMP is drifting in the $2-$4 range while the broader memecoin market remains out of favor. The token becomes a niche political collectible rather than a live trading instrument.
- Bear/invalidation: Senator Blumenthal’s investigation into potential SEC violations is gaining traction, or further legal fallout from Justin Sun and WLFI’s manipulation accusations directly impacts $TRUMP. In this scenario, the current price level does not offer any significant support and a price below $1 becomes the honest target.
The event itself on April 25 is the next event to watch, particularly to see if post-speech volume exceeds $500 million in a 24-hour window. If not, the base scenario is already confirmed.
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