Bitcoin investor sentiment is in ruins, but buried inside the wreck, a technical signal which only appeared the most important turning point in Bitcoin history has just been triggered again. This technical argument, which relies on Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index, is explained by the fact that the indicator fell to its daily low in four years, a level last seen near the 2022 bottom before BTC began its rise from $15,500 to $70,000.
Bitcoin’s RSI is back in a rare lower zone
The Relative Strength Index is among the most widely used momentum indicators, measuring the speed and magnitude of price movements on a scale of 0 to 100. Readings below 30 indicate oversold conditions. At its lowest point during the recent sale over the weekend, the daily RSI fell to 21.8, and the reading is still around the mid-20s at the time of writing.
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This places this reading among the lowest ever recorded for the daily time frame, and is why a crypto analyst who goes by the name Crypto Tice on the social media platform believes that Bitcoin price action maybe I’m looking something much bigger than a normal oversold bounce.
As the chart below shows, the red and orange zones correspond to some of Bitcoin’s most painful periods, including the 2011 bottom, the 2015 bear market low, the 2018-2019 correction, the 2022 collapse, and now the slow correction of 2026. In each case, the bottom appeared after the Bitcoin price had already suffered a significant decline, and this is the same pattern that is occurring currently.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoTice_ on
Why a 200% target is possible for Bitcoin
Bitcoin fell below $60,000 for the first time since 2024 and is currently down about 50% from its October 2025 high above $126,000. The leading cryptocurrency now trades between $61,000 and $63,000.
Interestingly, the main comparison for where Bitcoin will go from here is the 2022 low. At the time, Bitcoin’s RSI reached considerable oversold levels as the price collapsed to around $15,500, but the low eventually became the basis for a rally to $70,000 in 2024. This move represented a gain of over 350% from the low of the cycle, and it finally reached its all-time high in October 2025.
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If Bitcoin were to form a similar background around the current $60,000 area, a 200% rise would put the price at a target of $180,000. A development corresponding to the complete recovery from 2022 to 2024 would imply even higher levels, above $200,000. Today’s market also has a different context than 2022. Bitcoin now has spot ETFs, deeper institutional involvement, and large companies influencing sentiment.
Speaking of ETFs, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have resumed their release streak, which complicates any prediction of the background right away. The RSI technical signal is strong, but Bitcoin price needs demand to turn the signal into a sustained rally.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
