Bitcoin Cash (BCH), despite performing well this year, could face another major decline that pushes the asset towards $100, according to new on-chain information.
Data across the spot and perpetual markets indicates increasing selling pressure, with key indicators signaling the risk of a deeper decline.
Bitcoin Cash faces possible 50% drop
The Aloha On-Chain Signal, an indicator that has repeatedly marked the highs and lows of asset prices, shows that neither goal has been achieved for BCH so far.
As of press time, Alphractal data places BCH in the middle of this range, between the high and the low. Joao Wedson, principal analyst and founder of Alphractal, said he would not be surprised by a further decline in BCH despite the asset’s record high.
“Even with this impressive track record, I wouldn’t be surprised if BCH continues to fall.”
If a decline materializes, the signal indicates that the price would likely find a bottom near $100 – the level that typically marks its lowest – around 50% below where it is currently trading.
Wedson added that there is no guarantee of decline, emphasizing that “no market ever gives certainty.” However, AMBCrypto looked at the broader spot and derivatives data to assess how this move might play out.
BCH whales place large orders but miss out
Data from CryptoQuant shows almost neutral sentiment in the BCH spot and perpetual markets, although two indicators stand out and indicate an increasing risk of bearish movement. The average whale order size shows that large holders are firmly in control, averaging 229.96 BCH, or approximately $44,688 at press time.
This control raises concerns as the market funding rate has fallen to a negative 0.0028%, suggesting that most capital in the perpetual market is in short positions.
The cumulative spot volume delta tells a similar story, with sales volume exceeding purchase volume. The spot CVD shows that seller-takers are dominating the market, a trend that has continued for weeks alongside BCH’s decline.
If the metric remains in this bearish direction, it would weigh on the price and could extend BCH’s losses well below current levels, although it does not confirm a decline to $100.
BCH decouples from Bitcoin
BCH broke away from Bitcoin, with the 20-day correlation coefficient sliding to 0.24 after holding near 1.0 for much of May and early June.
This reading marks a weak positive link rather than the near-synchronous movement of previous weeks; the two assets have largely stopped trading in tandem, although they are not yet moving in opposite directions.
The split is important because BCH has fallen hard, from over $600 late last year to around $200. If decorrelation holds while Bitcoin trades sideways or recovers, BCH could extend its slide on its own, or the relationship could recover.
For now, the prospect of a short-term decline in BCH remains relevant, exposing the asset to further declines.
Final summary
- Analysts estimate that Bitcoin Cash could lose around half its value, falling from around $200 to $100, although no one considers this decline a certainty.
- BCH has started to move on its own rather than following Bitcoin, meaning its next move may not follow the broader market in either direction.
