Bitcoin price started the year with strong momentum, which was further boosted by the launch of spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds) in January. The leading cryptocurrency capitalized on its introduction to a new group of investors, reaching a new all-time high of $73,737 in mid-March.
However, Bitcoin has since slowed down in recent months, with several investors and crypto enthusiasts wondering if the bull run is over. The latest comment comes from a blockchain company that has put forward a sort of timeline for the flagship cryptocurrency’s bull run.
Bitcoin price has fallen 12% from its halving price
In a new report on Platform X, crypto intelligence firm IntoTheBlock shared insights into how Bitcoin behaves during a halving year and how it fits into the bull cycle process. The fourth halving event, which took place in April, saw miner rewards drop from 12.5 to 6.25.
Although the Bitcoin halving is a theoretically bullish phenomenon, the months following the event have not been particularly positive for the leading cryptocurrency. According to data from IntoTheBlock, BTC has fallen by 12% from its value of $63,900.
Although the market leader’s current position is somewhat better than pre-halving projections, it remains a source of concern for several investors. However, BTC’s disappointing performance after the halving may not be the end of the story, as the price still seems far from its cycle peak.
Source: IntoTheBlock/X
IntoTheBlock noted in its report that, from a historical perspective, the average time between Bitcoin’s halving and the next peak is 480 days. This would put the peak of the cycle around the summer of 2025.
Bitcoin price has been in a consolidation zone for the past two quarters, ranging between $55,000 and $69,000. A sustained break above the $70,000 mark could signal the resumption of the bull cycle.
When will the bull cycle resume?
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju made a similar comment about the current state of Bitcoin’s bull cycle. According to the crypto founder, BTC is only in the middle of its bull cycle and “has not yet reached the retail bubble.” To put it in context, the retail bubble refers to the phase where there is a significant influx of retail investors into the market.
It is worth noting that demand for BTC in some markets, particularly the US, currently appears to be declining. This trend is illustrated by the decline in Coinbase’s spot trading volume dominance, which has returned to pre-Spot ETF levels. Young Ju noted that US demand for BTC needs to rebound if the bull cycle is to resume.
CryptoQuant CEO added:
I expect this in the fourth quarter, but I could be wrong.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is hovering around $54,000, up just 0.5% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the market leader has fallen more than 8.5% in the past week, according to data from CoinGecko.
The price of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
