Will crypto recover or are we stuck in trouble until 2026??

Will crypto recover and why is everyone still so pessimistic about the US outlook? I like to make fun of America, but I also think we all face this and the trajectory of .cwp-coin-chart svg path { Stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-graph-container.positive svg path: nth-of-type (2) { trait: #008868 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.positive { color: #008868 !important; background-color: transparent !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-popup-holder .cwp-coin-trend.positive { border: 1px solid #008868; border-radius: 3px; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.positive::before { border-bottom: 4px solid #008868 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-price-holder .cwp-coin-trend-holder .cwp-trend { background-color: transparent !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-graph-container.negative svg path: nth-of-type (2) { trait: #A90C0C !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-popup-holder .cwp-coin-trend.negative { border: 1px solid #A90C0C; border-radius: 3px; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.negative { color: #A90C0C !important; background-color: transparent !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-coin-trend.negative::before { border-top: 4px solid #A90C0C !important; }

Bitcoin
BTC

$87,088.99


1.22%

Bitcoin
BTC


Price

$87,088.99

1.22% /24h





Volume in 24 hours

$29.98 billion



Price 7d

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After weeks of selling pressure, the most honest question in crypto right now is not “when the moon” but whether a rebound is even plausible in the short term.

Bitcoin’s slide from recent highs has shaken confidence, emptied leverage and reminded late-cycle bulls that crypto doesn’t go up perpetually. Yet what looks ugly on a chart doesn’t automatically mean broken. In crypto, sideways is often the prelude, not the obituary. Here’s what you need to know:

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Will crypto recover? Bitcoin’s on-chain behavior tells a calmer story than price

Price action appears tired, but on-chain data suggests long-term holders are not panicking. According to Glassnode, long-term holder supply remains near cycle highs, while FX balances continue to decline.

Data from CoinGecko shows that Bitcoin’s market cap stands at almost $1.77 billion, with volume stable. This is not a euphoric influx of money, but neither is it a rush for capital to get out.

The DeFi Llama data reinforces the same theme. The total value locked in major chains has stabilized after months of contraction, implying that capital is waiting, not fleeing.

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2025-2026 setup still favors patience on the upside

If there is a real threat of a crypto rebound, it is indeed a macro spillover. There are huge expectations for US stocks, especially AI-related stocks like Nvidia. When stocks sneeze, crypto always gets pneumonia. FRED data shows that financial conditions remain restrictive, even if markets anticipate possible rate cuts.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is trading below key EMAs, which keeps the short-term structure neutral to bearish. That said, compression around the 20 and 50 day EMAs historically precedes volatility expansion. The question is one of direction.

Many people have requested an update to this chart, so I’ll leave it here for anyone who needs to see it.

This shows the average trajectory of BTC after an oversold RSI reading, with the RSI falling below 30 at t=0.

So far, everything has gone pretty well.

Unless you… pic.twitter.com/FRLt5w7oFT

— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) December 17, 2025

Support levels cluster tightly between $86,800 and $88,000. Resistance lies around $90,000 and then $92,000. A net recovery of $90,000 with volume will likely reverse this sentiment quickly.

Most forward-looking models still predict that Bitcoin will retest between $100,000 and $110,000 by the end of 2025 if macroeconomic conditions stabilize. Supply remains structurally constrained and ETF flows continue, even if uneven.

Crypto winters don’t usually start with an orderly consolidation. They start by panicking. This looks like a shakeup that frees up weak hands while stronger capital waits. A sideways, frustrating and boring trend can still be optimistic.

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