XRP a clôturé le premier trimestre 2026 avec une baisse de 27,1 % par rapport à son trimestre d’ouverture, prolongeant une correction qui a désormais effacé plus de 60 % par rapport au sommet du jeton de juillet 2025 de 3,65 $. The current structure now leaves the XRP price at an important decision point heading into the second quarter, where the next move could show whether this is a pause before recovery or part of a deeper process. correction below $1 in the new quarter. Recent technical analysis shared on X presents both possibilities, but the tone indicates that caution is the dominant theme for now.
The first quarter went as planned. Here’s what the analyst understood
As the first trimester approaches, the analyst had reported that XRP’s 2025 correction was not over yet and another low was likely before a sustainable rally formed. This prediction turned out to be correct. XRP fell below $1.20 in early February, precisely within the support zone identified by the analyst. THE the trough has finally reached its low point around $1.16 on February 6 before a roughly 55% recovery from the same month’s low.
This decision, however, did not result in a complete reversal of the trend and the price of XRP experienced difficulties throughout the month of March. Price developments across the entire weekly structure still reflect a market that is struggling to regain its strength. The rebound failed to push into higher resistance zones above $1.5. This bearish price action ultimately resulted in a negative close of 2.79% in March, the sixth consecutive month of bearish closes.
XRP Weekly Price Chart. Source: @Morecryptoonl on
A temporary rebound in the second quarter, but not a complete bullish reversal
As it stands, the XRP price is now at an important decision point, and the analyst distinguishes between two scenarios heading into the second quarter. The main focus is whether it can sustain a corrective bounce, called “wave B” based on Elliott wave theory, back to the resistance band of $1.76 to $2.86.
According to the analysis, any significant recovery in the second quarter would require a decisive foothold in this region. A move above $2 would begin to validate the idea of a broader rally. This prediction is based on the 50% Fibonacci extension at $2.03380 and the 61.8% level at $2.34157, both on the weekly chart.
Current expectations lean toward a corrective rebound rather than a complete breakout. An increase in April or at the start of the second quarter is considered possible, especially since a similar rebound already took place earlier in the year.
However, the structure of that bounce matters more than the bounce itself. If price action forms a three-wave upward move, this would likely confirm a B-wave scenario, meaning the rally is corrective in nature and not the start of a new bull cycle.
In this case, the price of XRP could still be prepare for another step down (a C wave), which could develop later in the second trimester or extend into the third trimester.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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