The first quarter of 2025 ended with a dramatic turn for the cryptocurrency market, and for this reason, many think that it is a new Winter crypto.
If the beginning of the year seemed to promise new records, today, investors and analysts question the possibility of a global recession that could fuel a new winter.
This is what emerges from the recent “Harting Crypto” report created by Coinbase Institutional in collaboration with Glassnode, which offers a complete overview of the state of the sector.
The slowdown in markets: the start of a new winter of cryptography?
After an explosive in December 2024 – with the cryptography market (excluding Bitcoin) reaching a capitalization of $ 1.6 billion – the first quarter of 2025 saw an accident of 41%, bringing the value to around $ 950 billion. In parallel, the venture capital flow in the sector has decreased considerably, returning to the 2017-2018 levels. The combination of macroeconomic uncertainty, global trade tensions and a more restrictive monetary policy has launched shadows throughout the ecosystem.
According to Coinbase and Glassnode, prudence is necessary in the short term, but everything is not lost: when the feeling of the market is reversed, the rebound could be fast and vigorous. Expectations for the second half of 2025 remain more optimistic.
The voices of the protagonists: the data that count
The report also includes analyzes of some of the main players in the sector. Here are the strengths:
- Gray levels Stresses that, despite everything, the costs generated by decentralized applications are increasing, a sign of robust demand.
- Digital tephra Stresses that many major brokers are still limiting exposure to Bitcoin ETF: a change in policy could trigger a wave of investments up to 22 times higher than the flows observed in 2024.
- Capital several times celebrates the success of Solana, who in the first quarter generated more income than all the other blockchains of layer 1 and layers 2 combined.
- Crypto A16Z Underlines the rise of stablecoins, including the volume of transactions (adjusted for “inorganic” activities such as BOTS) has reached record levels.
Bitcoin and Ethereum: stress signals but also resilience
BitcoinThe king of cryptocurrencies, maintained a certain relative force. Although it has seen its price drop below $ 90,000, the long -term liquidity of the BTC has increased, which indicates that many investors accumulate rather than sell.
However, other indicators tell a more complex story:
- THE Profit / net loss not achieved (NUPL) Bitcoin fell to 0.47, marking a passage from the feeling of “denial” to that of “anxiety” among investors.
- More than 4 million BTCs are now at a loss compared to their last transaction price, compared to less than half a million at the start of the year.
- Bitcoin domination over total market capitalization increased to 63%, the highest level since 2021.
As of EthereumThe situation appears even more delicate:
- The price of the ETH fell 45% in the first quarter.
- The ether liquid offer increased by 15%, which indicates a greater desire to sell.
- Transaction costs collapsed by 54%, despite the number of remaining stable transactions.
- More than 40 million ETH are now “in Perdita”, reflecting the recent difficulties of investors.
ETF Spot and Capital Flows: a mixed image
ETF fund flow data shows a mixed image:
- The ETF Bitcoin Spot recorded positive flow rates until the beginning of 2025, but with a later slowdown.
- The ETFE SPOT on Ethereum had a more volatile performance, without clear signals from the directional trend.
In addition, the report underlines how the market for future and options experienced a drop in volumes compared to the post-American electoral heights of 2024, but remains solid in absolute terms.
Correlations and volatility: more isolated crypto
It is also interesting to note that the data on correlations: while the correlation between crypto and American actions increased during the first months of the year, compared to other traditional assets (gold, obligations, currencies), the crypto has maintained a weak or even negative correlation. A signal which, in the phases of extreme volatility, Bitcoin and Ethereum could behave like distinctive assets and not simply correlated with traditional markets.
From the point of view of volatility, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana showed high but not extreme levels, with more pronounced movements in particular on Solana.
Defi and layer 2: Development under the radar
Despite the context of the bear, the world of Decentralized finance (DEFI) continue to show signs of vitality:
- THE Total locked value (TVL) on Ethereum has reached $ 48 billion.
- Transactions on layer 2 such as arbitrum, optimism and base remain robust, while “Dencun” upgrade has considerably reduced transaction costs, increasing the effectiveness of the network.
According to Coinbase and Glassnode, certain events could quickly improve the scenario:
- End of quantitative tightening by the Fed, resulting in an increase in global liquidity.
- Budgetary stimuli Key savings such as European Union or China.
On the contrary, a worsening of trade tensions or new macroeconomic shocks could further worsen the crisis.
Conclusions: defensive strategy, but ready to restart
The last report of the report is clear: Adopt a short -term tactical and defensive approachBut remain ready to act when the feeling is reversed. In a market as volatile and cyclic as that of the crypto, opportunities tend to occur suddenly and to reward only those which are well positioned.
The second quarter of 2025 will therefore be crucial to understand if we are really on the verge of a long winter of cryptography or if, on the contrary, the ecosystem will be able to surprise again.
