Kalshi is in talks to raise new capital at a valuation of $40 billion, according to a Financial Times report, nearly double the $22 billion price tag attached to its Series F round just weeks earlier, in May 2026.
That $40 billion figure is almost triple the $15 billion that rival Polymarket is reportedly targeting. The central tension this story brings to the table is that a valuation that has moved approximately 20 times in twelve months deserves more scrutiny than a financing press release typically does.
The ongoing regulatory review of prediction markets is dominating discussions around Kalshi’s IPO, and until the situation is resolved, it is unlikely to become a publicly traded company.
What is Kalshi and why structure is important
Kalshi is not a crypto exchange or a sportsbook. It is a federally regulated event-driven contracts exchange, operating under the oversight of the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Think of it like a stock market, except instead of Apple stock, users trade binary contracts on the probability of real outcomes: whether the Federal Reserve raises rates, which party wins a Senate seat, or who advances in a tournament.
This CFTC license is the structural asset that separates Kalshi from Polymarket, which runs on blockchain infrastructure, settles cryptocurrency positions, and operates without U.S. regulatory approval.
Polymarket is faster and more accessible internationally, but it cannot credibly present itself to institutional allocators who need regulated counterparties. This credibility gap is the direct cause of the $25 billion gap between the two companies’ current fundraising goals.
Co-founders Tarek Mansour, a former trader at Citadel Securities, and Luana Lopes Lara, a quantitative finance specialist and MIT classmate, launched Kalshi in 2018 and built the company around precisely this regulatory positioning.
On June 24, Mansour confirmed on CNBC that Kalshi was evaluating a possible IPO, although he said a public listing was unlikely before 2027. IPO speculation around Kalshi has been circulating since early this year, but this is the first official confirmation from the CEO.
@Kalshi is negotiating a funding round of around $40 billion, according to the FT, almost double the $22 billion valuation secured in May.
CEO Tarek Mansour also said a conversation about a company-wide IPO was inevitable, although he ruled out an initial listing this year.
— Sandmark (@sandmark_news) June 25, 2026
@Kalshi is negotiating a funding round of around $40 billion, according to the FT, almost double the $22 billion valuation secured in May.DISCOVER: The best Meme Coin ICOs to invest in 2026
Growth Figures and the World Cup Catalyst
Monthly trading volume on Kalshi’s platform recently exceeded $17 billion, up from around $5 billion a year earlier, a more than three-fold increase in twelve months.
Bernstein Research estimates Kalshi’s monthly volume for May 2026 at $17.9 billion, compared to Polymarket’s $7.1 billion, giving Kalshi a 57% market share compared to Polymarket’s 22.7%. On an annualized basis, Kalshi’s trading volume reached approximately $178 billion in April 2026.
The 2026 World Cup constitutes a significant accelerator in the short term. DeFi Rate estimates that Americans will trade over $2.5 billion in prediction markets for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, including $1.47 billion on Kalshi alone in the base scenario.
Bernstein called the tournament a “watershed moment” for the industry. This type of volume event helps justify momentum-based fundraising conversations, but it also concentrates short-term revenue in a window that ends at the final whistle.
Polymarket’s markets during the World Cup have come under intense scrutiny in terms of integrity and liquidity, a dynamic that further strengthens Kalshi’s argument for regulatory differentiation.
The May 2026 Series F, a $1 billion funding round that included Coatue Management, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Morgan Stanley and ARK Invest, valued the company at $22 billion. The current target of $40 billion, if reached in the third quarter of 2026 as indicated, would represent a near doubling in a matter of weeks.
At around $2 billion in annualized revenue, that $40 billion figure implies a revenue multiple of around 20x, a level that Finimize noted “is priced more like an exchange infrastructure than a consumer application.”
(SOURCE: Kalshi)
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Bullish case, base case, bearish case on valuation
Case of the bull: Supreme Court upholds CFTC preemption, Kalshi’s sports contracts survive intact, 2026 World Cup volume pushes monthly numbers above $20 billion, and company completes IPO at stock infrastructure multiples that eclipse private price of $40 billion. The Polymarket gap widens further as institutional capital consolidates around the regulated venue.
Base case: Legal battles extend into 2027 with no final decision, volume moderates after the World Cup, and Kalshi closes the round at or near $40 billion thanks to its regulatory moat and long-term IPO narrative, but operates in a gray area where state-level enforcement remains a real risk.
Bear case: Federal court ruling narrows CFTC preemption, forcing Kalshi to restrict or restructure sports contracts. Monthly volume falls sharply from the World Cup peak, annualized revenue falls well below $2 billion, and the 20x revenue multiple looks like a risk bet that misjudged the regulatory outcome.
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Post-World Cup sparks $40 billion valuation hunt for Kalshi: are market valuation predictions real? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
