XRP is trading around $1.42 as the broader crypto market finds its footing after weeks of macroeconomic turmoil. As Bitcoin regains some composure and risk appetite gradually returns to digital assets, Ripple’s token is showing the first signs of momentum. The question now is whether this is the start of a real breakout or just another false dawn on the upper edge of a months-long descending channel.
Ripple Price Analysis: The USDT Pair
After spending most of the first quarter of 2026 approaching the lows, XRP has quietly built a modest recovery pattern. The asset is currently pressing against the upper boundary of the descending channel that has governed price action since the October 2025 high near $3.00, and for the first time in several months. The RSI is hovering above 50, signaling that buyers are coming in with a little more conviction than before.
The immediate overhead test is the upper boundary of the channel and the 100-day moving average, located around $1.50. Above that, the $1.80 area is a wide supply band that served as support in late 2025 before switching to resistance following the February breakout. The 200-day MA decreases in this same zone, adding structural weight to the resistance group.
A confirmed daily close above $1.80 would be the first significant technical breakout of this correction, opening the door to the $2.40 supply zone where a heavier distribution band lies. On the other hand, the trendline that the price has reclaimed in recent weeks and the February low at $1.20 remains the hard bottom.
The BTC pair
Against Bitcoin, XRP tells a different story. The pair is trading at 1,818 sats, sitting above the lower boundary of its own descending channel, near 1,600 sats. While the USDT pair is challenging resistance from below, the BTC pair is falling, reflecting the fact that XRP has continued to underperform Bitcoin throughout the corrective phase of this cycle. The 100-day MA (~2,000 sats) and the 200-day MA (~2,100 sats) are both well above the current price and still trending downward, with no signs of flattening.
The RSI on this pair is hovering around 40, and there is no bullish momentum here comparable to what is visible on the USDT chart. If the recent major low at 1792 sats breaks at the close, the next significant support will be in the 1500 sats area, with a deeper extension towards 1200 sats possible.
On the other hand, a true recovery requires, at a minimum, a recovery of the 2000 sat level and a decline in the moving averages. Until XRP/BTC can break this threshold, any dollar-denominated gains are more likely a product of Bitcoin’s strength lifting the broader market than XRP-specific outperformance.
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